Among the indicators Bleiberg looks at is a monthly survey put out by the National Federation of Independent Business. The survey asks small businesses whether they are finding it harder or easier to get credit. "That has been trending in the wrong direction," he says. "More businesses are saying it's harder to get credit." Bleiberg keeps a finger on the pulse of small business, because "that's the engine of growth, as the saying goes. You need small businesses to be growing and providing a lot of jobs." If you're looking for a quick snapshot on the economy's health, Bleiberg recommends the monthly report from the Institute of Supply Management. It asks purchasing managers if they are ordering more materials for manufacturing and building. A number above 50 means the economy is expanding; while a figure in the high 40s indicates sideways movement, he says. And a number below that signals contraction. April's figure: 40.1.
Awaiting Signs Of Growth
Local Financial Experts Share Their Thoughts About How They'll Gauge An Economic Turnaround
Denise Leish, financial adviser
Money Plans
Leish takes a two-pronged approach to figuring where the economy is headed. She looks at certain financial statistics. And then she checks in with a handful of clients working in key industries to find out what they are seeing firsthand.
Among the numbers she tracks is the Dow Jones Transportation Average index, made up of companies such as UPS, FedEx Corp. and the railways. "If the economy is doing well, you have to transport goods from point to point. When the economy is doing poorly, that index goes down," she says. The index is up 50 percent in the past two months.
Leish says she also regularly checks in with clients working in advertising, commercial real estate, auto sales and mortgage lending. What she has learned of late: Advertising sales have picked up. More people are taking out mortgages to buy homes. Vacancies at commercial properties have leveled off. And auto dealerships' showrooms have been filled with customers the past few weeks.
Leish says you can do your own economic sleuthing by asking friends, family and neighbors about layoffs or sales at their workplace.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist
PNC Financial Services Group
Hoffman watches the weekly jobless claims by unemployed workers seeking benefits for the first time. "If that could come down ... that indicates fewer people are losing jobs," he says. Unemployment claims have fallen off from a peak in mid-February, and the most recent report found that new applications for jobless benefits fell to the lowest level in 14 weeks. Still, they remain high, Hoffman says. April's unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent, but the number of jobs lost is the smallest since October, he says. "The job market, while it hasn't hit bottom, is beginning to stabilize," Hoffman says. For the first time, he says, it feels as if we are more than halfway through the recessionary woods. If these trends continue, by the fourth quarter the number of people employed will be steady and the unemployment rate will stop climbing. "That could be a bellwether sign that the recession has finally hit bottom," he says.
