Maryland lawmakers plan to wrap up work Monday on a $14 billion budget after months of agonizing over how to plug an enormous shortfall caused by deteriorating revenues and mandated spending growth.
But all that effort still won't put the state on solid, long-term financial footing.
Even with the influx of federal stimulus money, the General Assembly will reconvene in nine months facing a budget gap that analysts expect will reach more than $1 billion.
And, some would argue, it might be the worst possible time for Gov. Martin O'Malley and lawmakers to make unpopular cuts that could include layoffs or curtailing services.
After all, it will be an election year. The governor is expected to seek a second term, and all 188 General Assembly seats will be on the ballot.
"Next year is going to be enormously challenging, and that's an understatement," said Warren G. Deschenaux, the legislature's chief fiscal analyst, who has pointed out to lawmakers that the next budget they craft will take effect four months before they face re-election.
O'Malley, a Democrat, said in an interview that the fast-approaching election was not a factor in budget decisions, and he has blamed a national recession for "one big wave of red ink crashing over our bow."
Still, again this year, many of the most difficult decisions were delayed. While incorporating a raft of spending reductions, the state budget masks an underlying imbalance between revenues and expenses by relying on federal dollars and a series of transfers.
"There are some who say, 'Why don't you just get ahead of this?' " O'Malley said. "But if getting ahead of it means cutting into core services, if getting ahead of it means contributing to the economic woes by laying people off ... how do you do that?"
Some in Annapolis say the governor's strategy reflects his upbeat attitude about government.
"He's an optimist; he's hoping for the best," said Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller, a Democrat representing Calvert and Prince George's counties. "He regards the state as being benevolent, as being a force of good that can assist people in times of need and help move the economy forward."
But others call the approach foolhardy.
"Much of what's being counted on is hope," said Sen. David R. Brinkley, a Frederick County Republican and longtime budget committee member. "They are just crossing their fingers that the economy gets better instead of dealing with the problem."
