Washington - Maryland is an island of relative prosperity in a sea of economic gloom. That, at least, is how economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com depicts it.
In a recent map of the coast-to-coast recession, he ranked the state as one of the few not in recession, though still "at risk." In December, the state's unemployment rate was the 14th-lowest in the country, significantly below the national average.
What has helped keep Maryland from sinking deeper has been spending by the federal government, which is about to pump a whole lot more money in. Billions in new spending from the stimulus package could cushion the pain over the next year or two, though perhaps not quickly enough to keep the state from falling into the national recession.
Private economists say the package will help save jobs across the country, but they criticize White House officials for being overly optimistic about the impact. But when it comes to Maryland, the predictions may not be optimistic enough.
According to President Barack Obama's economic advisers, a total of 66,000 jobs will be created or saved in Maryland over the next two years. The figure is only a rough guess, based on economic models and population statistics, not the nitty gritty details of the $787 billion deal Congress and the administration hammered out.
There could be as much as $3 billion - and possibly even more - in new construction work in or near Maryland, once money from the stimulus package flows, according to congressional sources and documents released by Congress late last week.
That government spending alone could generate as many as 85,000 jobs, largely in the construction industry. An industry lobby, the Associated General Contractors, estimates that each $1 billion in spending creates 32,800 jobs.
Additional jobs will be saved or created from the roughly $814 million the state government receives in direct financial aid, which could prevent planned layoffs at the state or local level.
There will be new grants, too, for local governments to hire police officers (which, in reality, may end up being used to keep existing cops on the job). A total of $3 billion worth of research money will go to the National Science Foundation, some of which will filter into Maryland labs. The National Institutes of Health, based in Maryland, will be getting another $9 billion. Most of that is for research, but $500 million is for construction work at the Bethesda campus.
