Having watched political corruption cases in Maryland and elsewhere over 30 years, I can say this: Indictments are not predictable, but the reactions to them are.
The reactions to the 12-count indictment against Mayor Sheila Dixon of Baltimore sound quite familiar. We've heard in the past few days what we always seem to hear:
* Angry outrage-for-hire by a defense attorney, though, in this case, the live telecast of The Arnold Weiner Show (pre-empting Oprah on WBAL-TV) was something new.
* Supporters of the accused, including other elected officials, ridiculing the charges with "That's all they've got?"
* The accused and supporters complaining that the investigation took too long. (It would have been nice to have had the Dixon investigation conclude before the last city election, but the state prosecutor does not work for the Board of Elections.)
* The prosecution accused of being relentless, overzealous and partisan.
* Supporters of the accused arguing that performance in office is more important than anything else. If someone gets the potholes patched and the crime rate under control, then we should leave them alone; a prosecutor and grand jury will do irreparable harm to a city or state if they tear down an effective mayor or governor.
That last bit, that's what we've heard most often in Sheila Dixon's defense since Friday: She's done a good job as mayor so far, and all this petty indictment does is throw a wet blanket on the city's progress - and just as the Ravens are on a roll and Barack Obama is due here.
Yeah, well, that's true, and it's probably the saddest thing about this. But it doesn't mean the mayor is entitled to a free pass.
Entitlement is one of the problems, from what I see.
It appears to be Sheila Dixon's sixth sense.
In December, when The Baltimore Sun broke news that Baltimore's top officials had quietly voted to approve pay raises for each other in the midst of a municipal budget crunch, what was the mayor's initial reaction to the storm of criticism? She said she was going to keep her $3,700 raise.
Asked whether she would give, as some had suggested, her pay increase to charity, Dixon said: "To be honest with you, no, 2 1/2 percent, based on what I do seven days a week, 24 hours, trying to raise a family, a daughter in college."
In other words: "No way. I'm entitled to this."