Analysts see world closing gap with U.S. by 2025

November 21, 2008|By Greg Miller | Greg Miller,Tribune Washington Bureau


A new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies predicts that U.S. influence in the world will decline during the next two decades, as surging powers such as China and India, as well as independent entities including ethnic tribes and criminal networks, gain international clout.

The report, meant to serve as a guide for the administration of President-elect Barack Obama, offers a vision of a global future in which the United States, while powerful, is just "one of a number" of important players on the world stage.

Describing the findings, Tom Fingar, the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, said there would be a "diminished gap between the United States and everybody else."

The report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," represents the U.S. intelligence community's most comprehensive examination to date of the long-term security issues that the United States is likely to face.

Its central finding is that the United States will remain the world's foremost economic and military force but that its standing as an unrivaled superpower is likely to diminish as a "global multipolar system" begins to emerge.

China stands to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other single country, and India will strive to represent one of the world's economic poles. How the world adjusts to their increased roles will be up to those two countries, the report says.

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