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Will pummeled GOP be able to get up off the canvas?

November 18, 2008|By THOMAS F. SCHALLER

Possibly. It will be President Barack Obama's first midterm cycle, and Democrats will be defending a lot of territory, including Maryland's 1st District, a traditionally Republican seat won by Frank M. Kratovil Jr. in a race that went down to the wire. The Republicans hold some Senate and House seats that could be targeted, but having been narrowed down to the core areas of support for the party, the GOP may see more places to attack than protect.

But Republicans hoping for a repeat in 2010 of the 1994 "Republican revolution" that swept Democrats out of office during Bill Clinton's first midterm election cycle may want to temper their excitement. For one thing, the national momentum is working against the Republican brand today in ways that it was working for the GOP last decade. The damage done by George W. Bush and his administration cannot be repaired overnight.

Also, those 12 rookie Democratic senators who won in 2006 or 2008 will not be on the ballot in 2010. And aside from the handful of rookie House Democrats who lost in 2008, members of that big class of 2006 have now survived their first and riskiest bids for re-election.

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The other complication is resources. Because interest group money gravitates to the majority party, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee - as in 2008, the DCCC will be chaired in 2010 by Maryland's Rep. Chris Van Hollen - should enjoy sizable funding advantages. And we already saw what Mr. Obama's Internet-based fundraising machine and its 3 million-plus donors can do.

The Republicans are in dire straits. But as recent history proves, the fates of the major parties can switch very quickly.

Thomas F. Schaller teaches political science at UMBC. His column appears regularly in The Sun. His e-mail is schaller67@gmail.com.

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