We financial blowhards have been proclaiming forever that Detroit automakers had to end business as usual.
"The need for fundamental shifts in operating procedures is painfully obvious," said Business Week. That was in 1982. It wasn't obvious to General Motors, Chrysler and Ford.
Let's hope we're right this time. Big Three carmakers are facing their umpteenth crisis since the 1970s because they repeat a 1970s mistake: selling wasteful, giant vehicles in a time of high energy prices.
As impending bailouts herald another new era for Detroit, as the Obama team talks energy independence, as the nation prepares to address climate change, American carmakers must finally, irrevocably embrace the future.
Fortunately, the global auto industry offers some sleek and efficient prototypes for a retooling Detroit.
Not just Toyota and Honda. There's also a transmission plant in White Marsh - run by a company called General Motors.
The plant, which opened in 2000, proves GM can change. Its "lean manufacturing," smart workers and environmental responsibility represent the best of any industry, not just auto-making. Whatever the Big Three's next move, whoever is in charge, the more they can match what's going on in Baltimore County, the better off they'll be.
White Marsh demonstrates the successful retraining crucial to economic flexibility and keeping important factory jobs from going overseas. Most people making White Marsh's famous Allison A1000 transmission came from GM's defunct van plant in Baltimore.
Not only did they get months of re-education. The United Auto Workers approved a radical local contract that wiped out dozens of job classifications and allowed people to be trained for more than one duty. Most line workers are either "transmission technicians" or "transmission technician coordinators," switching between assignments as needed and reducing downtime.
Everybody wears shirts with GM and UAW logos. "I don't believe there are currently any open grievances on the books," says plant spokesman John Raut. White Marsh had one of GM's first "living" labor contracts, available for amendment in midterm if circumstances require.
"This is a modern, high-technology manufacturer where the workers have a new importance and high prominence in terms of their role in the decision-making," says David Iannucci, head of economic development for Baltimore County.
