"We are witnessing, I believe, probably one of the greatest comebacks that you've seen since John McCain won the primary," said Rick Davis, his campaign manager.
But his counterpart in the Obama camp said that the Democrat is already benefiting from high levels of early-voting activity in states Bush carried last time, including New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado.
"So Senator McCain, on Election Day, is going to have to not just carry the day, but carry it convincingly," said David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager.
Barring a last-minute surprise, the turning point of the general election likely came in mid-September, when credit markets seized up and Wall Street started its tailspin.
"This economic situation was without a question the straw that broke the camel's back," said Rep. Elijah E. Cummings of Baltimore, a leading Obama supporter. "People have just gotten to the point where they don't trust the Bush administration, and it has spread like a cancer to McCain."
Republican strategists blame McCain's slippage on a toxic political climate stemming from President Bush and his low approval ratings.
"I think the country decided that it was going to wash its hands of all things Republican once the economy tanked, and nothing has happened to change that," said Todd Harris, a former McCain aide not associated with the campaign.
Obama's surge in traditionally Republican terrain coincides with improving Democratic prospects in congressional races around the country.
Officials in both parties expect Democrats to strengthen their majorities by as many as 30 additional House seats and between five and nine Senate seats, according to the latest estimates by Congressional Quarterly. A nine-seat Senate gain would make it much easier for Democrats to get the 60 votes they would need to push major legislation through the chamber.
The latest public tracking polls, released yesterday, showed Obama with a lead of five to 10 points nationally. But the element of race has injected uncertainty into pre-election predictions.
Some Democrats, who credit Obama with fielding the best-financed and most effective campaign in party history, say the outcome would be beyond doubt, if not for racial factors.
"You would think Obama would have a 20-point lead everywhere," said Cummings. He said he had had doors slammed in his face when he canvassed for Obama in West Virginia and that voters there had "used the N-word, even though they knew I was a congressman."
