It has been 20 years since Maryland went for the Republican presidential nominee, and the state now ranks among the most Democratic in the nation. Between 1992 and 2004, it has been the third-, fourth- or fifth-most Democratic in presidential elections. Since '04, Democratic registration has risen statewide, while the Republicans essentially flat-lined, according to Maryland elections board figures.
Paul S. Herrnson, who directs the Center for American Politics and Citizenship at the University of Maryland, College Park, says the state's progressive politics are the product of a well-educated population that is highly dependent on the federal government.
Another leading factor behind the Democratic trend: a growing African-American population.
Maryland has the largest black voter base of any state outside the Deep South, and as Steele said not long ago, "The reality of it is, you take 10 African-Americans [and] nine and a half of them are going to vote for Barack."
Del. Christopher B. Shank, a member of the Republican leadership in Annapolis, says restoring two-party competition in presidential elections "is a tall order." He hopes the tens of thousands of families expected to move into Maryland under the federal base realignment program, many of them members of the military, will boost Republican rolls.
Shank says he's all for finding new ways to approach voters in future presidential elections. But he contends that efforts to reinvent the party, such as moving it leftward to broaden its appeal, would backfire, since that would alienate the conservative base.
"We are who we are, and we are this Reagan coalition, win or lose," says Shank. "Elections come and go, but our party philosophy should continue."
Maryland may not flip from Democratic blue to competitive purple until Republicans attract more minority votes.
But first, says former state Sen. Clarence M. Mitchell IV of Baltimore, the party must erase its association with anti-black policies.
Mitchell, a Democrat who helped elect the state's last Republican governor, says Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. won six years ago "because he didn't run as a Republican." Someone like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, he says, a Republican with blue-collar roots, might be able to broaden the party's national image.
Herrnson says that "a really good Republican candidate, or a really bad Democratic candidate," could make the state competitive in a future presidential contest. But it would take a long-term, "massive population turnover" to change Maryland's political leanings and put it back in play again on the electoral map.
That means it could many years before presidential candidates talk less about ethanol and coal, and more about crabs and the Cheseapeake.
