A matter of degrees

Maryland and the nation must produce more college graduates to compete in the global economy

This month, the University System of Maryland launched an information campaign to help put more students on a college-bound path at an earlier age. It's a welcome development, because the United States, accustomed to leading the world in higher education, is now facing a shortage of college graduates. (The state's independent colleges and universities, Morgan State University, St. Mary's College and Maryland's 16 community colleges have established similar initiatives.)

By the end of the next president's first term, there will be 3 million more jobs requiring a bachelor's degree and not enough college graduates to fill them; 90 percent of the fastest-growing jobs, 60 percent of all new jobs and 40 percent of manufacturing jobs will require some form of postsecondary education.

Yet some observers think that too many people are going to college. Paul Marx, a retired professor, wrote on this page in 2006 that trying to establish a culture where all or most students aim for college is "a great mistake." And in his new book, Charles Murray, author of The Bell Curve, argues that only 10 percent to 20 percent of students enrolled in four-year degree programs should be there. Mr. Murray's pessimistic view of the ability of people to learn ignores good evidence to the contrary, and his ideas about higher education are vestiges of a world in which a person could earn a living in a job requiring only low skills.

The U.S. Department of Labor reports that the country needs more graduates if we are to keep up with, let alone lead, other nations in the global economy. An analysis by the State Higher Education Executive Officers argues that national education and political leaders must ensure that a wide variety of students have access to college and the means to successfully complete their studies. The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems indicates that by 2025, the U.S. will need to produce 63.1 million degrees to match leading nations Canada, Japan and South Korea in the percentage of adults with a college degree. At our current pace, we would fall short of that threshold by about 16 million degrees.

Cutting the number of college students, as Mr. Murray suggests, would have a devastating impact on both the American economy and the larger society. Well-paid, lower-skill careers are disappearing rapidly as manufacturing jobs move overseas. Those workers who simply want to keep pace or get ahead will need some postsecondary education, and likely a credential, in order to participate in the knowledge-based economy.