WASHINGTON - John McCain's fresh momentum is changing the contours of the presidential contest and making a close finish more likely than ever.
With the race a virtual dead heat in national polling, the presidency could, once again, be riding on the voters of a single state. In 2000, Florida was pivotal. Last time, it was Ohio. This fall, the place to watch may be out west.
Colorado could be the ultimate swing state of 2008.
Statewide polling puts it squarely in the tossup category. Frequent visits by both presidential tickets attest to the importance of winning there. But it's the electoral arithmetic that shows why Colorado could decide it all.
From Alaska to Georgia, Barack Obama appears to be abandoning plans to spread the playing field and put McCain on the defensive in traditionally Republican places. McCain never really took the bait. Now, Obama may be forced to devote a lot more resources to Democratic areas where Sarah Palin is reaching out to culturally conservative whites.
Instead of scrambling the colors on the election night map, '08 may reflect the same evenly divided country that produced two presidential nail-biters in a row. It's conceivable that nearly every state will wind up voting the same way it did last time.
Florida, for example, appears to be leaning to McCain, though Obama is spending millions in an effort to tilt it his way. Tossup states seem to be trending in the same direction they went in '04.
Other examples:
Michigan and Pennsylvania: These Democratic states resisted the Bush tide and are in play for McCain because of the Palin factor and Obama's difficulty in connecting with white working-class voters. Recent polling, however, suggests a slight Obama edge.
Ohio: This is a must-win for McCain and another tough state for Obama, because of resistance from blue-collar voters. Polls give McCain a slender advantage.
McCain, of course, would become president if he picked up every state Bush won last time. But Obama has a good chance to flip two of them back to the Democrats: Iowa and New Mexico. McCain, on the other hand, could set up the very real possibility of a 269-269 electoral college deadlock by taking New Hampshire back for the Republicans.
Expect to hear a lot more about that scenario if the race remains tight over the next month.
If Obama wins the states John Kerry carried in 2004, plus Iowa and New Mexico, it would give him 264 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. McCain, meantime, would have 265, with Colorado's nine electoral votes in the balance.
