The road to full-blown celebrity is littered with sports stars who excelled at their game but, for any number of reasons, never became true household names.
Just a glance at superstar athletes who've hosted SNL through the years - the hottest names in the country at a given moment - shows that even this honor doesn't guarantee anything beyond fleeting marquee status: Andy Roddick. Joe Montana. "Marvelous" Marvin Hagler. Wayne Gretzky. Chris Evert.
Parlaying success in sports into something more might be harder still for Olympians, whose time to shine comes just every four years.
In 1996, gymnast Kerri Strug had the world at her feet after landing a gold-medal vault on an injured ankle but she faded away shortly thereafter amid jokes about her squeaky voice.
Others, like skaters Apolo Anton Ohno and Kristi Yamaguchi, have been able to bolster their celebrity by competing on Dancing with the Stars.
There's no question it's Phelps' moment to use or lose. The talent experts say how long that moment lasts is up to him.
"Michael is a very 'in' commodity right now, and that 'in-ness' tends to leave fairly quickly," Eventoff says, adding that Phelps, very soon, must find a message. In blunter terms: He needs to find something to say.
All the charisma in the world - which he thinks Phelps has in spades - isn't in itself the foundation for a long-term career.
"The platform that athletes are given is a tremendous blessing, as well as responsibility," Eventoff says. "Not having a central message, or even worse, having nothing to say, is the quickest way to oblivion."
Having a message, Eventoff says, means that someone should be able to express who he is, what he cares about, what matters to him and why anyone should care.
Phelps has made clear strides in this regard by donating the $1 million bonus he got from Speedo to establish a swimming foundation and by allowing cameras to capture the loving relationship he shares with his ever-present mom.
Phelps may not be "a natural media personality," says Jay P. Granat, a psychotherapist who works with athletes, but he's got a "Midwestern unpretentiousness" that, combined with his Olympic fame, can sell everything "from soup to swimwear."
"He's got the intangibles - sincerity, humor, humility, charm, consistency," Weedin concludes. "He also has something others would love to have: opportunity."
Saturday Night Live, NBC (Channel 11, 4), 11:30 tonight
