* The maple, beech and birch trees in forested Western Maryland are likely to "fade away," the report says, while pine trees more common in southern climes come to dominate the woodlands.
* As many as 34 bird species, including the signature Baltimore oriole, could be forced northward, while birds such as the cardinal and indigo bunting, seen more often to the south, become more common here.
The scientific group also focused on the potential impacts of sea-level rise for Maryland's 4,400 miles of shoreline. The waterline here has already risen by a foot since 1900, through a combination of surging waters and the land slowly sinking. Land subsidence likely will continue at the same rate, the scientists project, but sea-level rise is expected to accelerate during the coming century.
Shoreline erosion has already claimed many islands and broad stretches of wetlands in the Chesapeake - and spurred many Marylanders to armor their shorelines with bulkheads - with deleterious impacts on water quality, shoreline habitat and wildlife.
When the climate models add the impact of melting Arctic ice, the projected rise in sea level jumps to three feet by the end of the century. If so, the panel concluded, "most tidal wetlands would be lost - about 200 square miles of land would be inundated," reverting to open water. Migration of wetlands to higher ground would not replace what is lost.
Smith Island and portions of Talbot, St. Mary's, Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties could be inundated or cut off.
An 18-inch rise in sea levels would drown 264 miles of roads, 226 miles of rail and 31 percent of Baltimore's port facilities, the panel noted.
The panel urged that Maryland's long-range planning accommodate a 1-foot rise in sea level by midcentury and 2 feet by 2100. If emissions are not curbed, it would be "prudent" in long-term infrastructure planning to anticipate a 4-foot rise in sea levels a century from now.
As temperatures climb, cool-water northern species in the Chesapeake estuary, such as soft-shell clams, sturgeon and eelgrass, are likely to disappear, while warm-water species - such as Atlantic croaker - would benefit. Crabs might prosper from higher salinity and warmer temperatures.
"Summertime water temperatures are likely to be similar to those of the North Carolina sounds by 2050," the panel said.
By 2100, they'll feel like South Florida.
With added runoff, that will expand "dead" zones, where nutrients in sediments lead to algae blooms, decay and reductions in dissolved oxygen.
On the plus side: Icing across the Chesapeake Bay - formerly a once-in-10-years event - may become as rare as once in 25 to 40 years, the committee said. That could aid oystermen and bay navigation.
tim.wheeler@baltsun.com
frank.roylance@baltsun.com
