Analysts also said Iran is unlikely to close Hormuz because it depends heavily on imports for domestic gasoline consumption and to export its own crude oil, the source of most of its income.
The possibility of conflict in the Persian Gulf, whether intentional or not, arises from growing concern about Iran's apparent determination to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. Concern is especially acute in Israel, which lies well within range of Iranian missiles.
The United States and its allies, working through the United Nations, have imposed economic sanctions on Iran, in a confrontation that has frustrated both sides.
FOR THE RECORD - A photograph of the test firing of missiles released by the public relations arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Sepah News, which ran on the front page of yesterday's editions of The Sun had been digitally altered. The Sun was unaware of this manipulation. The photograph above is the correct image, which shows one missile remaining in the launcher.
THE SUN REGRETS THE ERROR
The Iranian missile tests prompted responses from both major presidential candidates. Republican Sen. John McCain noted the dangers Iran poses "especially to Israel," and renewed his call for effective missile defenses.
Democratic Sen. Barack Obama called Iran "the greatest strategic challenge to the United States in the region" and repeated his call for "direct and aggressive diplomacy."
On Capitol Hill, a senior State Department official acknowledged that Iran is dangerous but "not 10 feet tall."
"The Iranian regime is a potent regional adversary, tactically cunning and opportunistic and good at asymmetric conflict," Undersecretary of State William Burns told the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. But "because of its behavior, it can count on few allies in the world beyond the unimposing trio of Belarus, Cuba and Venezuela, and sometimes Syria."
Iran's long-range missile, the Shahab-3, is a derivative of a North Korean missile designed in the early 1990s and upgraded with Chinese and Russian assistance, according to U.S. intelligence officials and private analysts. Iran first tested the Shahab-3, unsuccessfully, in 1993.
Iran has worked to extend its range by enlarging its fuel capacity and elongating the rocket body.
Global dependence on Persian Gulf oil is increasing, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, while Iran has shown no sign of being willing to give up its nuclear program or stop supplying insurgents in Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza with military training and weapons.
Analysts such as Fereidun Fesharaki of Facts Global Energy Inc., an international energy consulting firm, point out, though, that Iran is highly dependent on continuing the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf.
Fesharaki said last month that Iran's consumption of gasoline, which is mostly imported because Iran lacks modern refining facilities, is growing at about 10 percent per year.
A year ago, Iran imposed severe gasoline rationing, prompting street riots in Tehran and elsewhere.
Owners of private cars are limited to 26 gallons per month. In March, the government began allowing drivers to purchase beyond that limit, at four times the cost.
david.wood@baltsun.com
