Every time I think I have this fantasy thing figured out, it smacks me upside the head.
Take my auction a week ago for the American League keeper league I started with readers last season. With stars such as Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz locked up, I was pretty sure that National League transplant Miguel Cabrera was the best player available - by a lot.
As the winner of the inaugural campaign (I'll always have that one, guys), I had the right to nominate the first player for auction. So I tossed out Cabrera, knowing I wanted him and figuring that bidding might be a little sluggish, as it often is out of the gate. I would have been happy to pay $45, maybe even $50, to get a sure thing.
Problem was, another owner, Chuck Sardelis, felt the same burning need. I'm sure he blanched when I bid $49, just as I did when he bid $50. Somehow, the numbers kept climbing. Once you're willing to go a little crazy for a player, why not go a lot crazy?
I finally won this game of brinksmanship at $57, or $20 more than anyone would pay for another player the whole night. Seemingly stunned by my big buy, fellow owners tightened their purse strings. For the next few rounds, name players went at or below the values seen in many preseason guides. And I didn't have the budget to get in on these solid buys.
By the middle of the auction, there was way too much money left for the quality of players remaining. And that leads to what, kids? Inflation.
In most keeper leagues in which I've played, inflation is highest on stars. A guy such as Cabrera might go $20 over book value, but the middle-tier regulars go for sane prices. This auction produced the opposite effect. With so many stars off the table at reasonable costs, we were forced into bidding wars for guys such as Milton Bradley, Yuniesky Betancourt and Franklin Gutierrez. I mean, David Eckstein went for $20, or $9 more than Gary Sheffield. Shaun Marcum went for $14, just $4 less than Roy Halladay.
I had to pay $16 for Carlos Quentin, $12 for Jacque Jones and $7 for Tony Pena Jr. Those are the types of buys that make a man feel dirty.
It was one of the wackiest auction dynamics I've seen, and I have to admit I didn't see the pattern until it was too late to take advantage. I punted the saves category without really meaning to and ended up with shabby catchers and a thin outfield. I bought a top-heavy squad that will need huge seasons from Cabrera, Paul Konerko, Nick Markakis and B.J. Upton to have a shot at another title.
