It was June 2001, and the price of a gallon of regular gasoline had soared to $1.68 a gallon. It was so ridiculous that many folks said to heck with it, we'll take mass transit. And they did. There were 5 million more transit trips taken in the United States that month than the previous June.
But by June 2002, with travel curtailed in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, gas was down to a less burdensome $1.39. Public transit lost 23 million rides from the same month a year before as commuters returned to their cars. Not until 2004 would annual transit ridership return to 2001 levels.
Now comes another June, with many Baltimore-area outlets selling gas for more than $4. Transit ridership is up nationally and locally, according to the American Public Transit Administration and Maryland Transit Administration.
In some cases, the gains are astonishing. From January to March this year, Seattle's commuter rail ridership rose 28 percent and Tri-Rail in South Florida gained 12.9 percent, said an APTA spokeswoman, Virginia Miller. Such gains may have accelerated as gas prices continued to rise in the second quarter.
Now many transportation officials and commentators wonder whether these changes are solid or ephemeral. Will gasoline prices recede and will riders decide they've had enough of crowded MARC cars and pokey Light Rail? Or will $4 gas do what $1 gas and $2 gas and $3 gas could not: force a lasting shift of riders who have a choice to public transit?
Richard Chambers, executive director of the Maryland-based advocacy group One Less Car, thinks the $4 milestone is significant.
"There is going to be a tipping point because the economy just isn't doing very well," he said. "If we had a world-class transit system in the Baltimore area, I don't doubt for a minute we would be seeing very large increases in ridership."
Some transit executives are preparing for just such a change. Last month, Washington Metro's general manager, John Catoe, told his staff to make contingency plans for an influx of riders in case gas hits $5 a gallon.
But Christopher Summers, president of the Maryland Public Policy Institute, is a skeptic. Even if gas hits $5, he said, motorists will choose convenience and stick with their cars.
"The reality is people are going to adjust. They make the trade-off," he said. "I don't think you're going to have people rushing to get onto public transit."
