With chaos on the ground in Myanmar and no reliable sources of information, Maryland disaster experts say it's no surprise that casualty counts from the cyclone that struck the country can range from 22,500 to 100,000.
The remote nature of the devastated area and government restrictions on Western relief organizations mean that very little reliable news about deaths or the plight of survivors has appeared, said W. Courtland Robinson, deputy director of the Center for Refugee and Disaster Response at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
"You start with these very, very rough estimates, and that's usually from somebody on the ground who may not have the best information. Then you work from there," said Robinson, who may soon visit Myanmar as part of the relief effort.
The Myanmar government's official death toll is 22,5000, but an American diplomat in Myanmar, Shari Villarosa, said in news reports that the toll could rise to 100,000 if international aid doesn't arrive soon.
Such wide-ranging estimates are not unusual in the first days after a natural disaster, experts say. In the day or so after the 2004 tsunami struck Southeast Asia, initial estimates were that 5,000 to 10,000 had perished, Robinson recalled. It actually killed 150,000.
Relief organizations are traditionally a major source of early information about death and survival rates. In Myanmar, the cyclone hit hardest in the remote Irrawaddy delta region, but the military government has restricted access of relief agencies to the area's 3 million residents. Without medical help and clean water, experts say, there's a risk of cholera and other diseases.
"The population is large, and it's a relatively inaccessible area, even under normal conditions," said Robinson, who flew to Indonesia a few days after the 2004 tsunami to track the numbers of dead and missing.
Robinson is studying the displacement of the population and the numbers of refugees who returned to their homes after the 2004 tsunami. He is also working with researchers at Columbia University, using satellite imagery and other data, to estimate the death toll in Myanmar.
"I would say, at this point, I would be very interested in going there," he said.
It took several months to come up with an authoritative death toll after the 2004 tsunami in Indonesia - and it may take as long in Myanmar, experts say.
