After Clinton won in Pennsylvania 10 days ago, the focus of the campaign shifted to the May 6 primaries and whether she could survive a double defeat. Because Obama was heavily favored in North Carolina, a larger state with more delegates, the showdown in Indiana, regarded as must-win for Clinton, got more national attention.
Now, with polls tightening everywhere and Indiana a virtual dead heat (Clinton leads in some polls there), it appears unlikely that her candidacy will end anytime soon. Instead, questions are growing about how badly Obama will suffer from recent stumbles and his handling of the Wright matter.
Much as Pennsylvania tested the breadth of Clinton's appeal, a narrow Obama victory in North Carolina could be interpreted as a sign of trouble, particularly if the Illinois senator lost Indiana the same day. His ability to win the total popular vote, potentially important in the fight for superdelegates, could hinge on how he does in North Carolina.
"This is not a state that gives anybody landslides," said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina. Obama has "got the potential to have a clean win, but he's not going to blow her out. It will give him the opportunity to proclaim [that] he can win a relatively large state. But she may get enough votes here to continue" her candidacy.
North Carolina recently passed New Jersey to become the nation's 10th most populous state. A bridge between the mid-Atlantic region and the Deep South, it is adding almost 200,000 new residents a year, including upscale retirees and workers drawn to an economy in transition from agriculture and textiles to education, banking and biotechnology.
Many of those moving in "are not tied to the history of North Carolina politics. It makes it a little more problematic to know exactly what they'll be doing" on Election Day, said Thad Beyle, a University of North Carolina political scientist.
Leslie Zanaglio, 46, quit her job as an insurance executive in Columbus, Ohio, and moved to Apex, N.C., not long ago. She said the furor over Obama's pastor makes her wonder "where Obama's judgment was for 20 years."
Obama is "a professor," said Zanaglio, who is backing Clinton "because of her experience and her positions on health care, the economy, handling foreign leaders and bringing the troops home. If she could win this state, then the superdelegates would really begin questioning Obama's strength. I think they're already questioning it."
