She's running as "the hometown girl," he said, "talking about `my Dad taught me how to shoot,'" a reference to Clinton's late father, who grew up in Scranton, and to the cottage at nearby Lake Winola, where young Hillary Rodham spent summers.
The most recent statewide polling shows Clinton with a small lead, not a margin so wide as to impress enough of the superdelegates who will likely decide the nomination. Losing Pennsylvania would be "pretty much a door closer" for Clinton, said a prominent supporter, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, late last week.
Obama has outspent Clinton by a significant amount, running one of the most expensive media campaigns in state history. Neil Oxman, a Democratic consultant in Philadelphia, said Obama has a better organization on the ground, which has registered tens of thousands of new voters.
However, Obama may have hurt his chances for an upset victory, said Oxman, with a widely reported comment about "bitter" small-town residents of Pennsylvania who "cling" to guns and religion. More recently, he drew poor reviews for his performance in a televised debate from Philadelphia, which attracted an unusually large viewing audience.
The presidential primary, the most significant for Democrats in this state since 1976, has been a battle between two Pennsylvanias: the old, declining industrial stronghold and a new, more diverse Pennsylvania.
A recent Brookings Institution report said that fast-growing portions of eastern and south-central Pennsylvania are turning the state into a "bridge between stagnating Midwest states like Ohio and neighboring states like New Jersey and Maryland - states that are more diverse both economically and demographically."
It's also "a battle between wings of the Democratic Party. The old New Deal wing, the ethnic, immigrant, labor, more conservative, patriotic, defense-minded, tough-on-crime wing," which is behind Clinton, "versus the liberal wing," said Madonna, the political analyst, who is also director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College.
Much of the last-minute activity by both candidates seemed aimed at the old Pennsylvania, with Clinton and Obama broadcasting similar, populist-themed messages attacking oil companies, Wall Street executives and greedy CEOs, while promising to provide middle-class tax relief and health care for all.
On Friday night, Obama addressed the largest crowd of his campaign, estimated at 35,000, in downtown Philadelphia. Yesterday, he climbed aboard a train for a whistlestop tour of the southeastern part of the state, where he needs a huge turnout to overcome Clinton's expected advantage elsewhere.
Clinton planned to campaign today at Penn State University, where her father and brother played football. The campus community is regarded as an Obama stronghold, and he spoke to a crowd estimated at more than 10,000 there earlier this month.
paul.west@baltsun.com
