Conditions in the Atlantic Ocean have grown more favorable for hurricanes in recent months, so forecasters at Colorado State University have boosted -- by two -- the number of storms they're expecting during the 2008 season, which opens June 1.
The combination of warmer sea-surface temperatures -- the "fuel" for storm development -- and more favorable sea-level winds should make this "a very active season," according to CSU's Phil Klotzbach and William Gray.
Hurricane activity from June through November will likely be "well above average," they said.
Above average
There's a 45 percent chance that a major storm -- with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher -- will make landfall somewhere along the East Coast or in Florida. The average for the past century is 31 percent.
Klotzbach and Gray are predicting 15 named storms in all, including eight hurricanes and three storms that reach "major" status, with Category 3 winds of 111 mph or higher.
Such storms, while comparatively rare, cause 80 to 85 percent of all hurricane storm damage. The probability that a Category 3 storm will make landfall on U.S. shores this year is about 135 percent of the average from 1950 through 2000, the forecasters said.
If they're right, the 2008 season will see the same number of named storms as last year, but two more storms would become hurricanes than last year and two more would reach Category 3 strength.
The CSU team delivered its annual April forecast yesterday at the 12th Annual Bahamas Weather Conference, on Grand Bahama Island.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Center for Climate Prediction will issue their 2008 hurricane forecast in May.
But government forecasters are expected to play down their own storm counts this year.
Bill Read, the new director of the National Hurricane Center, said last week that he wants the official forecasts to present predictions as being "above average, at average or below average," rather than placing emphasis on any specific storm counts, said NHC spokesman Dennis Feltgen.
The worry, he said, is that residents will drop their guard if the forecast calls for only a handful of storms in a coming season.
In 1992, for example, forecasters called for just seven named storms, only one of them a hurricane. But the first storm of the year was Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 monster that devastated South Florida.
