In college admissions it is the year of unprecedented uncertainty.
Akua Abrah, a talented senior at Annapolis High School, tried to guess how many top schools she would need to apply to in order to get in somewhere she really wanted to go. She chose 10.
Admissions deans such as John Latting at the Johns Hopkins University walked a tightrope as they tried to estimate how many students to accept to fill their freshman classes. What was the probability that students such as Abrah, who might be accepted by competitors, would choose Hopkins?
A bump in the population - a so-called baby boomlet - means that a record number of high school seniors are applying to college this year.
Making matters worse, a handful of selective colleges dropped "early decision," so thousands of students who would have been committed to attend a college by December instead joined the larger group applying for spring acceptance.
And some counselors suspect that colleges began rejecting highly qualified students who the admissions officers believe are applying only because they need a backup "safety" school. National rankings judge colleges in part by the yield rate - the percentage of accepted applicants who ultimately enroll. So colleges worry about accepting too many students who decline to attend.
Deans of students have taken to writing personal notes on the formal acceptance letters, a touch they hoped would entice students to enroll. Just in case an unexpected number say no, the waiting lists are longer, too.
The intense competition for places isn't just for those applying to the Ivy Leagues. Statistics from colleges show it is harder to get into small liberal arts colleges and big state schools.
Maryland schools noted an increase in applications from state students trying to save tuition costs in a weak economy. Even community colleges are seeing more students registering earlier.
And so now some high school seniors are left with fewer choices than they expected - while others must pick from a confusing number of acceptances.
At Washington College in Chestertown, the number of applicants for 400 slots in the freshman class went up from 2,146 last year to 3,391 this year. At Hopkins there were 16,006 applications for 1,235 spots, an 80 percent increase in applications since 2002.
And at the University of Maryland College Park, the number of applications went up from 25,000 last year to 28,000 this year for a freshman class of 4,500.
