2008 is looking up for congressional Democrats

In addition to retirements, congressional fundraising to date this cycle is lopsidedly tilted toward the Democrats.

For all the fuss about lobbyist money in the presidential race, it is in congressional contests that lobbyist money is most significant. At the end of January, the House Democrats' campaign committee had $35.4 million cash on hand to House Republicans' $6.4 million - an almost 6-to-1 ratio. On the Senate side, the Democrats' advantage was a bit more than 2 to 1, $30.5 million to $13.2 million.

Though certain groups, year in and year out, give disproportionately to one party or the other - unions to Democrats, chambers of commerce to Republicans - most non-ideological organizations want their money on the winners. So the Democratic tilt not only confirms that the K Street crowd is betting on the Democrats this year but, unlike the money placed on actual horses at the racetrack, their bets have a self-fulfilling quality because they affect the two parties' competitiveness.

Finally, there is George W. Bush. Ample historical evidence links a president's popularity to his party's congressional performance. When Democrats won former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat last month in a special election - an Illinois seat held by the GOP for 20 years in a district Mr. Bush carried in 2004 - Republicans around the country shuddered.

A potential silver lining for Republicans is that 2008 cannot be nearly as bad as 2006, because President Bush is leaving office and presumptive presidential nominee John McCain offers his party a chance for a clean slate.

But overall, the spate of retirements and the money advantage probably mean that Speaker Pelosi will pick up roughly a dozen seats in the House, with Senator Reid netting three or four new members for his Senate majority.

Thomas F. Schaller teaches political science at UMBC. His column appears on alternate Wednesdays in The Sun. His e-mail is [e-mail].