Lost amid the turmoil of this year's exciting presidential campaign is what's shaping up to be a potentially fascinating congressional cycle.
Here in Maryland, results from the "Potomac primary" provided an early whiff of the changing landscape of congressional elections. Incumbent members of Congress are normally untouchable. But sophisticated challenges mounted by conservative and liberal activists helped unseat, respectively, Eastern Shore Republican Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest and Prince George's County-based Rep. Democrat Albert R. Wynn.
There is ample evidence - ranging from congressional voting scores to voters' self-description - that the parties are polarizing and becoming more distinct. The Democrats have fewer Southern-based "blue dogs" now than they did when they last controlled Congress, during the first half of President Bill Clinton's first term. And, after 2006, the Republicans have fewer Rust Belt moderates in the tradition of former House Republican leaders Robert H. Michel or Gerald R. Ford.
In that regard, we should not be too surprised that defections from party orthodoxy are potentially lethal, as they were in the case of the two Maryland congressmen punished in the primary for the crime of insufficient partisan loyalty.
Pulling back the focus a bit, the foremost concern for Democrats this November is defending their new majorities. The 2006 cycle was only the second time since 1954 that control of both chambers flipped at the same time: Republicans captured both chambers during the 1994 "Republican revolution" and held those majorities for 12 years.
The challenge facing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is whether they can maintain control and build a durable governing majority. Several indicators point to 2008 as a generally favorable congressional cycle for the Democrats.
For one, as is typical in cycles following a change in majority power, a spate of members now relegated to minority status have chosen to retire. So far, about two dozen Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election this November; defending that many more open seats puts the GOP at a serious disadvantage.
On the Senate side, matters are only a little better for Republicans. Retiring Republican senators in Colorado and New Mexico have given two cousins, Democrats Mark and Tom Udall, a chance to move up from the House to the Senate. Likewise, Republican John W. Warner's pending retirement in Virginia gives former Gov. Mark Warner a great opportunity for another Democratic pickup.
