"Make no mistake: NATO is not winning in Afghanistan."
So says the Atlantic Council of the United States, the sponsor of one of three recent independent U.S. reports on Afghanistan. The other two - by the Afghanistan Study Group, on which I served, and the National Defense University - arrive at a similar conclusion: Without prompt action by the U.S. and its allies, the mission in Afghanistan may fail, with disastrous results for U.S. strategic interests worldwide, including the war on terrorism and the future of NATO.
NATO leaders preparing for their summit meeting in Bucharest, Romania, next week should take heed. All three reports agree that achieving success in Afghanistan will require two things: a willingness to make the war in Afghanistan and the rebuilding of that country higher priorities, and for the world to recommit to a sustained, long-term effort.
According to the Afghanistan Study Group report, this is a crucial moment. The progress achieved after six years of international engagement is under serious threat from resurgent violence, weakening international resolve, mounting regional challenges and a growing lack of confidence among Afghans about the direction of their country.
What should be done? The independent reports offer recommendations to revitalize the U.S. and international effort in Afghanistan. Among the most important:
The international community must get its act together in Afghanistan. More than 40 countries, three major international organizations and scores of other agencies and nongovernmental organizations are active in Afghanistan, setting their own priorities and often working at cross purposes with the Hamid Karzai government. The recent appointment of a new high-level U.N. envoy, Kai Eide of Norway, was a long-overdue step in the right direction.
The international community's "light" military footprint must be replaced by the "right" footprint. This means increasing the number of NATO troops - currently 43,000 - and military equipment to the levels requested by field commanders (at least two combat brigades, an additional 7,500 troops). France appears the likeliest candidate to step forward. Nations unable to contribute more forces should significantly bolster their civilian assistance for development and governance programs. Greater assistance is also needed for training and equipping Afghanistan's national army and police, the keys to Afghanistan's long-term security and NATO's eventual departure.
