Dan Uggla is a legitimate power threat, but his homer totals obscure the fact that he's a low-average hitter with little chance to improve in that category. I don't like to spend substantial auction money on a player who actively hurts me in any area.
I fear Upton could become a drain on my average this year. At $12, he's cheap enough to merit the risk, but many owners will pay twice that, and I wouldn't for a guy who struggles to make contact.
If we're talking low-average second basemen, I'd target Rickie Weeks, who walks enough to give himself ample run-scoring and stolen-base opportunities. Weeks was a great player in the second half of last year.
Among bargain-basement second basemen, check out Luis Castillo of the New York Mets. You'll have to make up for his nonexistent power, but a .300 average and 15 steals look nice in your middle infield, and he's reliable.
Shortstop
Ramirez, Rollins and Jose Reyes are all worthy first-round picks. If your league is cold on Reyes after his September swoon, pounce, because he can give you a sizable head start in steals. Ramirez, by contrast, might drop a bit of power after shoulder surgery.
Among the next tier, I'm comfortable discounting Rafael Furcal's first half of 2007 because of a spring training ankle injury. He has always been a good contact hitter who could be counted on for a .280 average, 12 to 15 homers and 30 steals. That's worth $25 in a 12-team National League league, and he should be available cheaper than usual.
Julio Lugo isn't as good as Furcal, but he's a similar player and is also likely to be undervalued after an awful 2007. Nothing changed in his basic ability to make contact or drive the ball, so don't be shocked if he hits .275 with 12 homers and 30 steals this year.
Jason Bartlett is an affordable 25-steal guy who won't hurt your batting average and could score plenty of runs in an improved Tampa Bay Rays offense. Ryan Theriot is similar on the NL side.
Derek Jeter is a solid bet to surpass .300, but his power and speed don't merit the bids his reputation will attract.
Miguel Tejada is in the same boat. He'll help your average, but I see no sign that he'll bounce back to 25-plus homers. The Houston Astros' ballpark isn't much better than Camden Yards for right-handed power.
I like J.J. Hardy, but nothing suggests he'll regularly hit for power the way he did in 2007.
Finally, if you're an Orioles fan and you believe Luis Hernandez is a major league-caliber hitter, think again.
childs.walker@baltsun.com
