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U.S.-Iran relations in holding pattern

February 12, 2008|By TRUDY RUBIN

Those diplomats were cashiered when Mr. Ahmadinejad came to power. This year's delegates mostly sounded like slightly calmer versions of the Iranian leader. The mantra on Iran's nuclear program: no freeze of uranium enrichment, period. There was no talk of destroying Israel by force; rather, there was a constant repetition of Mr. Ahmadinejad's formula that all Palestinians everywhere should decide the fate of the Jewish state by referendum.

Iranian officials clearly grasp that the regional power balance has shifted in their favor. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan removed Iran's two biggest enemies, Saddam Hussein and the Taliban, and put Iran-friendly regimes in power in Baghdad and Kabul. At Davos, CEOs and officials from Gulf Arab states made clear they don't want America to attack Iran, despite U.S. efforts to align those states against Tehran.

The loudest Iranian message at Davos was that Tehran won't change its policies before the end of the Bush administration. "We can wait," Mr. Mottaki told me. He seemed certain the United States would eventually accept Iran's nuclear policy.

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The overweening confidence of Mr. Ahmadinejad's team that America will accept Iran's terms will make it hard for the next U.S. president - no matter who - to improve relations. Which brings me to Iran's 2009 presidential ballot.

The most interesting Iranian figure at Davos may have been Tehran Mayor Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, a pragmatic conservative who could well oppose Mr. Ahmadinejad in 2009 and have a good shot at winning.

Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said, "His worldview is based more on pragmatism, and he is not beholden to ideology. ... Qalibaf is not going to be talking about democracy or civil society, but he won't deny the Holocaust or call for Israel to be wiped off the map."

The Davos message: Progress in U.S.-Iran relations will have to wait until pragmatism takes hold in high places in both Tehran and Washington.

Trudy Rubin is a columnist for The Philadelphia Inquirer. Her column appears Tuesdays in The Sun. Her e-mail is trubin@phillynews.com.

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