"Join the club," he said.
Rosenfeld said he thinks Baltimore is in the midst of a short-term lull and predicted that crime will worsen if the economy sours. "I wouldn't expect it to last long," he said. "I think that there's no question that the economy is going to make itself felt in rising crime rates by the end of 2008. So, it's a respite is my best guess, and probably brief."
Rosenfeld did say there are indicators that could show that law enforcement efforts are paying off.
FOR THE RECORD - In an article on Page 1A of yesterday's editions of The Sun about the drop in homicides during the past month, the headline mistakenly referred to January 2007 rather than January 2008.
The Sun regrets the error.
If the biggest declines are in categories involving firearms, it could indicate that violence-suppression efforts are working, he said. In January, Baltimore recorded significant declines in homicides, nonfatal shootings and aggravated assaults, and common assaults were down slightly.
Other officials and experts involved in addressing Baltimore's crime problem agreed yesterday that police, prosecutors, parole and probation agents, and other city and nongovernmental entities have been collaborating much better in recent months.
Gov. Martin O'Malley said he thinks a new focus on crime prevention in the Division of Parole and Probation, plus a renewed sense of cooperation between the major players in the city and state governments and the U.S. attorney's office, has made a real difference in public safety.
"It's just a lot better now," O'Malley said. "It almost seemed for the last four years if we were trying to improve public safety, it was somehow contradictory to other statewide political agendas, but now we're all aligned with the reality that if the city becomes safer, it's better for the whole state."
The city's law enforcement efforts have been more sharply focused on criminals who carry guns. Last spring, city police formed a gun-tracing task force, which investigates ways to target gun offenders. By mid-2007, the number of nonfatal shootings had risen 35 percent. By the end of the year, however, police reported an increase of 2 percent.
The city's homicide rate during the first six months of last year was on a pace to surpass 300 by the end of the year. But gun violence slowed, and the city ended the year with 282 homicides.
"I think that [Bealefeld] has appropriately set his sights on gun violence and gun offenders, and that's where you need to focus your sights if the objective is to reduce homicides," said Daniel Webster, an associate professor and co-director of the Johns Hopkins University's Center for Gun Policy and Research.
