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Calling for Yahoo to get bold

Web traffic leader urged to fend off fast-closing rivals

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January 29, 2008|By Jessica Guynn , LOS ANGELES TIMES

It may be too early to judge turnaround efforts, though. Stanford Group analyst Clayton Moran recommended patience.

"For the past few years, the rapid emergence of Google and the fragmentation of the Internet have really driven Yahoo's underperformance," he said. "Give Jerry at least a year. Six months is not enough time to judge his ability and what he's done."

Jackson Securities analyst Brian Bolan says even though the company's reorganization hasn't delivered anything "new or earth-shattering," he sees positive signs that the "vultures" have finished off "the carcass that was last year."

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By and large, analysts are expecting a solid fourth-quarter performance when Yahoo reports today - 11 cents a share of profit on $1.4 billion in revenue, fueled by modest gains in search and higher volume in display advertising.

Some analysts say Yahoo's management is quietly making progress that could bode well for earnings in 2008, including eliminating weak business units and hundreds of jobs. Still, many are concerned that the outlook it offers Wall Street will reflect an anticipated slowdown in the economy and consumer spending.

Yahoo declined to comment, noting the usual quiet period before its earnings announcement.

"This quarter is very important," said Anthony Valencia, media and entertainment analyst for TCW Group in Los Angeles. "You can only have so many quarters of disappointing results, and you can only ask so many times for investors to be patient."

Bottom line: Since Yang took over, Yahoo shares have lost 22 percent, closing at $21.94 Friday. Should they continue to fall, Yahoo could become a takeover target for private equity firms or strategic buyers such as Microsoft Corp. or News Corp., which have both kicked its tires before, analysts say.

Yahoo knows this is not a good time to falter. People close to the company say Yang and his team are working hard to speed up decisions and streamline operations to become more like the nimble innovator Yahoo once was.

"It's all well and good to have ideas, but people are looking for more than just ideas at this point," Standard & Poor's analyst Scott Kessler said. "People don't care about vision, they want to see results. So far the results have been mixed at best."

Jessica Guynn writes for the Los Angeles Times.

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