SPARTANBURG, S.C. -- In every presidential contest since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to become the Republican nominee.
Maybe that track record is one reason that Arizona Sen. John McCain, who lost the state eight years ago in a brutal fight with George W. Bush, hopes his forecast of victory in Saturday's election is accurate.
But Mike Huckabee is standing in the way of redemption for McCain, who heard fresh echoes yesterday of the ugliness he encountered in 2000.
Meanwhile, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is drawing "a line in the sand" in South Carolina and attracting larger crowds than he saw earlier in the campaign. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, fresh off his victory Tuesday in the Michigan primary, flew to South Carolina hoping to increase his share of the vote.
Underscoring the volatility - and uncertainty - surrounding the first Southern primary, a new statewide poll, released yesterday, found that more than one-third of likely Republican voters have yet to make up their minds.
"As many as one-quarter of the voters might decide in the last 24 hours before the Saturday election," concluded J. David Woodard, director of the Palmetto Poll at Clemson University.
Steve Henderson, a 45-year-old medical aide from Greer, S.C., is typical of the many voters who have yet to make a final decision. He is torn, he said, between Huckabee's "moral values" and McCain's "straightforwardness."
"I'm a Baptist. I'm a Christian. And I like a lot of what Huckabee talks about," said Henderson. But "McCain is strong and has a lot of experience."
In keeping with this state's reputation for bare-knuckle politics, a flood of negative phone calls, made by an independent group backing Huckabee, has put several candidates on the defensive, including Thompson and McCain. Huckabee has disavowed the calls.
McCain might well have the most to lose in a contest that his campaign concedes is "very important."
Winning South Carolina would put McCain in a strong position going into the Jan. 29 primary in Florida, where Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former New York mayor, awaits. Losing again could make McCain's New Hampshire victory seem a lonely one, and his cash-short campaign could face a financial crisis.
