On the other hand, Iran and Syria stand to gain by shaking up the pro-Western ruling coalition in Lebanon. By giving Hezbollah a greater say in Lebanese government decision-making, Iran would win a powerful partner in furthering Shiite interests in the Arab world and a guaranteed base from which to launch possible further attacks on Israel.
As for Syria, many speculate that with veto power, the March 8 Alliance would work to block the U.N. investigation into Syria's alleged role in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister and staunch Syria critic Rafik Hariri. Worse, some worry that emboldening the pro-Damascus voice in the Lebanese government could be the prelude to Syrian attempts to return to its erstwhile protectorate.
With no resolution in sight, some fear that tension between the two factions could break out into civil strife. Although it is unlikely that either side will seek all-out confrontation, it is always possible that an outbreak of violence on the street could erupt into widespread conflict in a country divided firmly along political and sectarian lines - and where memories of the bloody 1975-1990 civil war are fresh.
