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Lebanon hangs in the balance

By James Martin|January 16, 2008

After a week of whirlwind travel throughout the Middle East, President Bush returns to the U.S. today hoping that his trip has secured the support of Persian Gulf states in America's drive to counter Iran's regional ambitions. But while Mr. Bush worked to draft Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into a reinvigorated containment strategy for Iran, and while U.S. and Iranian warships played chicken in the Strait of Hormuz, another conflict between Washington and Tehran was quietly unfolding in Lebanon.

There, a stalemate between the pro-Western government of Fouad Siniora and the Hezbollah-led, Iran- and Syria-backed opposition threatens to throw the country into turmoil. Yesterday's deadly explosion targeting a U.S. Embassy vehicle in Beirut was just the latest reminder of how volatile the situation there is.

The implications for the U.S. of the political power play in Lebanon are huge. Hezbollah's push to undermine Lebanon's U.S.-supported government has the group's Iranian and Syrian backers poised to expand their influence westward and to turn Lebanon into another major regional battlefield in the cold war between Washington and the Tehran/Damascus axis. Unfortunately, there may be little that Mr. Bush can do to stabilize Lebanon. He is determined not to negotiate, and dialogue with the likes of Syrian President Bashar Assad is not without risks. Sustained diplomatic isolation coordinated by the U.S. and France may stand the best chance of preventing Syria from meddling further in Lebanese affairs.


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As things stand, it does not appear that any resolution to the crisis is on the horizon. After the departure from power in late November of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, the Hezbollah-led opposition, known as the March 8 Alliance, has consistently blocked the election of his successor, demanding a veto-yielding vote in parliament before it agrees to allow a president to be selected. Realizing that granting the opposition this veto power would give Syria and Iran a greater voice in the decisions of the Lebanese government, the pro-Western majority in power has refused to relent. Thus, Lebanon remains without a president and is left in an unstable and dangerous vacuum.

As a result, Lebanon - hailed by the Bush administration as a model democracy in the Middle East after popular protests in 2005 forced out Syrian troops and allowed for parliamentary elections free of foreign interference - stands at risk of political meltdown. Its slide into chaos would be a major blow to the U.S. push to democratize the region.

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