If female Democrats in Maryland have begun moving to Clinton in similar fashion, "this race is undoubtedly much closer" than the numbers indicate, Raabe said. The Sun's poll numbers did not reflect such a shift, however.
"There's part of me that says, `Do you want to be a woman who doesn't vote for the first woman who has a really good chance to be president?'" said Carolyn Kline, 32, a former fifth-grade teacher from Crofton who now stays at home to raise her two young children. Kline said she likes Clinton's health care and education policies, and appreciates "what I feel she helped to accomplish while her husband was in office."
Fourteen percent of Democratic women said they were more likely to vote for Clinton because of her gender, more than double the percentage of men.
But if McCain is the Republican nominee, Kline, who is a Democrat, said she might vote for him in November. She said she believes that McCain projects a "position of authority" on homeland security and the global fight against terrorism.
The Republican contest in Maryland appears to be a four-way race, with little space between the leading candidates. McCain had the support of 26 percent of primary voters when those leaning toward a candidate were counted, followed by Huckabee with 18 percent, Giuliani with 16 percent and Romney with 12 percent. Fred Thompson garnered 6 percent, just above Texas Rep. Ron Paul's 5 percent.
The margin of error in the Republican sample was 5.6 percentage points.
In the August survey, Huckabee - the surprise Iowa winner - had just 2 percent support.
"I fluctuated among McCain, Giuliani and Romney," said William Lewis, 86, a retired telephone company installer from Catonsville. Lewis said he is now "centered" on McCain, because of the senator's "reliability, character and general view points - similar to mine."
Lewis disagrees with McCain's immigration views, an issue that has weakened the Arizona senator nationally. Lewis said he would be "less than enthusiastic" if Huckabee were the nominee, but would vote for Giuliani "without regret."
Faith Stanton, 73, a retired domestic worker from Mount Airy, is among the 16 percent of Republican voters who say they haven't made up their minds. "All of them do a lot of talking," she said. "It's hard to say right now."
The Sun survey offered little hope for the candidacy of John Edwards, the former vice presidential nominee who has vowed to stay in the Democratic race.
"He doesn't have any sort of a pathway to victory right now," Raabe said. Unless Edwards catches fire nationally, "here in Maryland, there is no obvious constituency," Raabe said.
Edwards saw no gain when voters were asked for their second choice. Among Democrats, Clinton was the second choice of nearly a third of primary voters, and Obama was the second pick of one in four.
On the Republican side, Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Huckabee had roughly similar support as a second-choice selection.
david.nitkin@baltsun.com
Coming tomorrow: Marylanders' views on the death penalty.
