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Support fragile in Md. primary

Voter indecision clouds outcome for both parties

The Sun poll 2008 campaign

January 14, 2008|By David Nitkin , SUN REPORTER

The telephone survey of 904 likely registered voters was conducted Jan. 6-9, including two days before the New Hampshire primary and one day after the results were known. The impact of that contest - with Clinton and McCain reviving their candidacies - might not be fully reflected in the results.

Obama held a 39 percent to 26 percent lead over Clinton among Democrats, when voters who said they were leaning toward supporting a candidate were included. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards trailed with 12 percent support. The margin of error in the Democratic race was 4.6 percentage points.

Sixty percent of black voters supported Obama, up from 30 percent in an August OpinionWorks poll. Clinton had the backing of 22 percent of black voters.

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Maryland is home to the largest proportion of African-American residents outside the Deep South, and black voters historically count for three in 10 voters in a Democratic primary. Increasingly, black voters appear enthusiastic about a possible Obama nomination.

"I like his ideas. I think we need something different," said Veronique Davis, 23, a Columbia resident studying social science at Howard Community College. "I like Hillary Clinton, but we've already had a Clinton. It would be better to have something fresh and new."

Davis said she was surprised by the Illinois senator's Iowa win and was excited about voting this year. But she remained skeptical that Obama would emerge victorious.

"I think he does have a good chance of winning, but I'm not sure people are ready to have a black president," she said. "There's still a lot of racism. That could be a problem."

Byron Tribue, 22, a recent graduate of Florida State University who moved to Pikesville with his girlfriend, said he made up his mind to vote for Obama after listening to his Iowa victory speech.

"Everything he is saying is new," Tribue said. "America is looking for something different."

Twenty-one percent of black voters said they would be more likely to vote for Obama for president in the November general election because of his race. Three out of four said race makes no difference. Among white voters, only 7 percent said they would be more likely to vote for Obama because he is black, while 84 percent said race made no difference.

Pollsters had a difficult time foreseeing Clinton's New Hampshire win. Analysts have suggested she was helped by last-minute support from women who may have reacted sympathetically to some of Clinton's emotional or humanizing moments in the past week.

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