Sen. Barack Obama built a fragile advantage among Maryland Democrats heading into the nation's first primaries of 2008, with the state's large black population solidifying around the candidacy of a promising African-American leader, a new Sun poll shows.
But Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's win in New Hampshire has likely tightened the Democratic contest, The Sun's pollster said.
Among Republicans in Maryland, Sen. John McCain of Arizona holds a narrow edge over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney close behind, according to the poll.
But support is weak for all candidates, particularly in the Republican field. With less than a month before Marylanders cast their primary ballots, many voters say they might still change their minds.
"It's an extremely malleable electorate," said Steve Raabe, president of Annapolis-based OpinionWorks, the polling firm that conducted the survey for The Sun. He said voters are finding it a challenge to "lock in on anyone."
Nearly seven in 10 Republicans who currently support McCain or Huckabee say they might switch allegiances before Maryland's Feb. 12 primaries. Support for Giuliani and Romney is only slightly firmer, according to the poll.
Democratic voters are more sure of their choices. Even so, four in 10 Clinton and Obama backers said they could be swayed by another candidate.
With so much uncertainty, the results of next month's so-called Super Tuesday primaries - where California, New York, Illinois and more than a dozen other states select convention delegates - could have a major effect on the Maryland outcome.
"If there's a big tidal wave on Feb. 5, and Obama gets snowed under by Hillary, his support will largely evaporate here in Maryland, except in certain important pockets," Raabe said. "I do believe that for any candidate in this race, whatever happens on Feb. 5 is going to determine what happens in Maryland on Feb. 12."
The Maryland results parallel national trends, with no clear favorites in an unsettled election, which for the first time in decades lacks an incumbent seeking re-election or a vice president hoping to advance.
If the races remain undecided into February, which some analysts foresee, Maryland's primaries could be more significant than previously thought.
Virginia and the District of Columbia vote on the same day as Maryland.
