CONCORD, N.H. -- For the better part of a year, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was expected to be the Democrats' 2008 presidential nominee. Polls showed her leading nationally and in key primary states. Bettors favored her in online political futures markets. The candidate herself was happy to perpetuate the notion that her nomination was inevitable. So pervasive was this inevitability meme that former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani began depicting himself as the GOP entrant best able to beat Mrs. Clinton in November.
Whether or not Mrs. Clinton can come back to win the nomination, fellow Sen. Barack Obama's victory in Iowa and strong showing last night in New Hampshire dented any notion of her inevitability. Iowa made him the front-runner, a development that has shaken up not only the Democratic primary but the Republican one as well. His continued success would also make an independent run by New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg much less likely.
"Because Barack speaks to the broadest possible constituency, he's the most difficult candidate for the Republicans to deal with," former Sen. Bill Bradley, an Obama endorser, told me after he gave an impromptu rally speech to Obama volunteers here Monday. "He's not just trying to get the base of the party out; he's trying to expand the base."
Poll numbers from New Hampshire confirm Mr. Bradley's assessment. According to a recent pre-primary CNN/WMUR poll, almost four times as many Republicans in the Granite State hold a favorable view of Mr. Obama than of Mrs. Clinton (54 percent to 15 percent). These are ominous numbers for Republicans still hoping to draw the former first lady in the general election.
The first whiff of the cross-partisan threat of Mr. Obama's January surge came during the late stages of Saturday night's Republican presidential debate at St. Anselm College. Moderator Scott Spradling of WMUR asked the candidates how, if nominated, they would run in the general election against Mr. Obama.
After Sen. John McCain touted his experience in foreign policy and called Mr. Obama too inexperienced to take command of the country, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney reminded Mr. McCain that all the Democrats "made that same argument in Iowa," yet Mr. Obama "blew them away. And if you think making that argument as a Republican, that you have more experience and you've been around longer in the Senate ... that's not going to work."
