The AAMC is calling for a 30 percent increase in medical school enrollments during the next decade. That's a 180-degree switch from a decade ago, when many of the same medical groups were warning of an impending oversupply of physicians.
While the Maryland study doesn't look at whether patients are suffering because of the doctor supply, Wasserman said there is anecdotal evidence in crowded waiting rooms, lags to get appointments with specialists and difficulty finding obstetricians.
Dr. Carol Paris, a psychiatrist in St. Mary's County, said she's so busy that new patients have to wait six weeks to see her. Those with more urgent problems are directed to the hospital emergency room.
Paris said she was the only private-practice psychiatrist in the county until two years ago, when, after an 18-month search, she attracted a colleague to practice with her. At age 55, she said, "I'd like to start cutting back." But Paris worries that she could lose her associate because of high demand for psychiatrists elsewhere.
Calvin Pierson, president of the Maryland Hospital Association, said hospitals and physician practices have reported increasing difficulty in recruiting new doctors.
MedChi and the hospital association are recommending steps to make Maryland a more attractive place to practice medicine, chiefly increasing the rates that insurance companies pay doctors. They also are calling for lower caps on medical malpractice judgments to cut liability premiums.
With malpractice premiums dropping in the state, the legislature has indicated little interest in reforms this year. Wasserman and Pierson said yesterday's report was directed primarily at a state task force studying access to care; it is due to report in June.
They also propose an expanded loan-forgiveness program to encourage doctors, particularly those who do their residency training in Maryland, to practice here. Competition to recruit doctors who are completing their residency is intense.
Dr. Michael Abraham, in his last year of residency in emergency medicine at the University of Maryland Medical Center, said: "I get two or three e-mails a day" from recruiters, particularly from rural areas. "They're paying a ton of money in the middle of nowhere."
Still, he and his girlfriend, a resident in pediatrics at Johns Hopkins, have decided to stay in this region. "I like to be in an area where I can see a lot, do a lot and still be around academic medicine," he said.
