Although the state has plenty of doctors, it doesn't have enough who actually see patients - a situation that creates "a silent and growing crisis," the head of the state medical society said yesterday.
The shortages are greatest in rural areas "but are likely to affect most of us by the year 2015," said Dr. Martin P. Wasserman, executive director of MedChi, the professional society for the state's doctors.
MedChi and the Maryland Hospital Association released a study yesterday showing that the state has 179 doctors delivering care for every 100,000 residents. That is 16 percent below the national average of 212.
While the state has about 25,000 licensed physicians, the second-highest rate per capita of any state, nearly 40 percent are engaged in teaching, research and administrative duties, according to the study, and some of the rest spend part of their time in such nonclinical work. Many of those doctors work at the state's two large medical schools and at federal facilities such as the National Institutes of Health.
The study comes as medical groups nationally also say that more doctors will be needed - a reversal of past warnings of impending oversupply and accusations of trying to limit competition.
Still, some scholars are skeptical about shortages. They argue that more physicians does not necessarily mean healthier people and reason that improvements in efficiency and technology can cut future personnel needs.
"Just having more doctors doesn't necessarily mean better care," said Katherine Baicker, a professor of health economics at Harvard.
The greatest shortages in Maryland, according to the study, were found in rural areas and in certain specialties - primary care, emergency medicine, anesthesiology, hematology and oncology, thoracic and vascular surgery, psychiatry and dermatology.
The study predicts a worsening shortage by 2015 as an aging population requires more care. At the same time, the physician force will experience more retirements. A quarter of the state's surgeons are 60 or older, the study found.
There is a growing national consensus on the need to produce more doctors. During the past few years, more than 30 studies have projected shortages in specific regions and in certain medical specialties, according to a compilation in August by the American Association of Medical Colleges.
