With their revenues down and the reservoir of prime-time programming drying up, Baltimore's traditional big three network affiliates face a new year laced with doubt -- and the looming specter of a new season of American Idol.
Last year ended on a down note: Estimated fourth-quarter ad rates dropped 6 percent overall, and total revenue was down 5.7 percent. While Fox stations, such as WBFF 45, can take comfort in the Jan. 15 return of ratings behemoth American Idol, there's little joy elsewhere on the TV dial. The Hollywood writers' strike is putting most established dramatic and comedy series on hold, while a collection of second-string shows replace them.
The stakes are high. A weakened schedule doesn't just affect prime-time ratings and revenue. It could also lead to smaller audiences for the local late news, which is almost always the most-watched -- and thus most profitable -- locally produced program on affiliate stations.
Station management remains determinedly optimistic, though.
"At this point in time, I would say [the strike] has had no impact on our ratings or our revenue," says WJZ, Channel 13 Vice President and General Manager Jay Newman. But, "Ninety days from now, I don't know."
So far, the most newsworthy effect the strike has had was forcing late-night programming into reruns for two months. All the late-night hosts -- from David Letterman to Jimmy Kimmel -- returned to the air last week with new shows.
But this month's midseason lineups are heavy with reality and game shows (see Hulk Hogan in a new version of American Gladiators), plus reruns and second-tier series that might not have made it to prime time under normal circumstances. And then there's Idol, which trounced the competition last year and should really clean up against weakened programming.
Even the most optimistic station executives acknowledge the likelihood that fewer viewers will tune in. And smaller audiences could not only lead to reduced ad rates, but could prompt some advertisers to take their business elsewhere.
"We have to have some kind of strategy," says Jane Goldstrom, executive vice president and media director for MGH Inc., a Baltimore-based advertising agency, noting that she is advising clients to expect a 20-percent to 30-percent drop in viewership for the networks' prime-time offerings -- with a similar drop in numbers for the late-night news. "We can see where some shows are falling off."
