NEVADA, Iowa -- Voters in Iowa will start choosing the next president this week, but the nomination fights in both parties aren't likely to end on caucus night.
Tight contests are boosting the chances for some opening surprises as the notoriously unpredictable Iowans, after closely studying the candidates for months, finally make their picks. Even campaign veterans are excited.
"What a race! We've never seen one like this," says Ed Rollins, who directed Ronald Reagan's 1984 re-election drive. He recently re-entered the fray as campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee, the Cinderella candidate of 2008, who is favored to win the Republican caucuses Thursday night.
Sen. Hillary Clinton, trying to become the first woman nominated by a major party, appears to have pulled marginally ahead in a three-way race with Sen. Barack Obama, who would be the first African-American to head a party ticket, and John Edwards, the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee.
But if the Democratic result in Iowa is as close as the polls have been for months, the winner may have a hard time claiming a decisive victory.
Rolling across the state's frigid snow-covered prairie this weekend, the former first lady's blue campaign tour bus advertises the theme of her closing push. Big letters emblazoned on the sides announce that it's "Time to pick a president."
Iowa's caucuses played that influential role in the past, lifting Jimmy Carter and President Bush and his father all the way to the White House (in 1992, an Iowa senator's candidacy led Bill Clinton and other Democrats to skip the state). In 2004, Iowa proved pivotal again, with John Kerry sweeping to the nomination after he upset Howard Dean.
Changes in the primary schedule have pushed the caucuses into New Year's week, the earliest date ever. That hasn't diminished the excitement, at least among Democrats, who expect a record turnout. Reflecting the sharp differences between the parties, downbeat Republicans are predicting much more modest participation.
The new campaign calendar, designed to give other states a piece of the early action this year and diminish the impact of the opening tests in Iowa and New Hampshire, has had the opposite effect. Candidates have spent far more time and money in Iowa than ever, including more than $35 million on TV advertising, at least triple the previous record.
