WASHINGTON -- In a surprising new report, the U.S. intelligence community said yesterday that Iran halted its secret military program to develop nuclear weapons four years ago, most likely in response to international criticism.
The new National Intelligence Estimate runs counter to Bush administration warnings about Iran's weapons development program, specifically its suggestion that Iran is pushing to build a nuclear bomb. The report said Iran's effort to turn nuclear material into a bomb ended in 2003 and has not been restarted.
A top White House official said there would be no change in U.S. policy toward Iran as a result of the latest intelligence finding.
According to the new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies, Iran is continuing its effort to enrich uranium to produce weapons-grade material and "at a minimum" is keeping open the option of developing nuclear weapons.
But the report said Iran faces "significant technical problems" and probably could not amass enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb until "sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame."
Despite fiery rhetoric from Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, about Iran's right to develop nuclear weapons, the intelligence report said Tehran's decisions about nuclear arms seem to be guided by weighing the costs of international sanctions and diplomatic isolation rather than a single-minded, all-out rush to get a bomb.
"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," said the intelligence assessment, released by Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence.
For President Bush, who warned in October that Iran's nuclear ambitions could ignite World War III, the new report appeared to be a cold splash of reality.
"This is challenging information," acknowledged Stephen J. Hadley, the president's national security adviser.
But he insisted that the new intelligence judgments bolstered White House confidence that international pressure, rather than force, was the right way to deal with Iran.
Threat of war
Asked at an Oct. 17 news conference about Iran's nuclear ambitions, Bush replied, "I believe they want to have the capacity, the knowledge, in order to make a nuclear weapon. ... If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge to make a nuclear weapon."
