These days, as soon as a horse wins the Kentucky Derby, fans immediately start calculating whether this is the one who could overcome all obstacles and break the Triple Crown drought, which dates to 1979.
As you may have noticed, those obstacles tend to arise more in the 1 1/2 -mile Belmont Stakes than in the Preakness. Ten horses have won the Crown's first two jewels during the drought only to lose in the Belmont. Only two horses have won the first and third jewels but faltered in the Preakness.
For a good horse, the Preakness has served as a valedictory more than an obstacle, and while there are many explanations, let's focus on a key one that has surfaced in the past decade: the absence of the best horses who didn't win the Kentucky Derby.
The Preakness used to shape up almost every year as a Derby rematch, but fewer owners and trainers are running their 3-year-olds in all three races, fearing burnout. The Preakness, coming so soon after the Derby, is getting skipped more often.
Remember Empire Maker? After he ran second as the Derby favorite in 2003, his trainer, Bobby Frankel, skipped Baltimore, pointed the colt for the Belmont and won it, spoiling Funny Cide's Triple Crown bid.
Since Silver Charm, Free House and Captain Bodgit battled it out so memorably in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness a decade ago, fewer dangerous Derby losers have come back for more at Pimlico.
But things might be different this year with Curlin among the eight starters scheduled to run Saturday at Pimlico against Street Sense, the latest Kentucky Derby winner.
Street Sense appears to have a legitimate shot at going all the way, but among the many obstacles that could deny him, Curlin's presence in the Preakness ranks high.
Hard Spun, the Derby runner-up, is also back for more, as is Circular Quay, a horse that has been off the board only twice in eight races, most recently in the Derby, where he was sixth. But Curlin, a lightly raced colt who ran third at Churchill Downs, has been turning horsemen's heads all spring.
Curlin is a big, powerful chestnut who exudes winning qualities; baseball scouts wouldn't hesitate to label him a five-tool prospect. He sold for just $57,000 as a yearling, and sore shins kept him from competing as a 2-year-old, but when he finally made it to the track earlier this year, he won his first race so impressively that within 48 hours his owner sold a majority interest in him for $3.5 million.
