The name of the game is pitching and defense.
That's what wins baseball championships, right? If boiled down further, though, conventional wisdom says that for a team to go far in the postseason, it must have strong starting pitching. Everything else is secondary.
Look at last season, when the two teams with the lowest starters' ERA in each league - the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League and the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox in the American League - advanced to their respective league championship series.
This year, however, starters' ERA won't be a primary indicator as to who makes it to the ALCS or NLCS.
The Detroit Tigers and Angels, both contenders, are the American League leaders, but two also-rans, the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins, are tops in the NL. In fact, heading into Friday night, five of the 10 major league leaders in starters' ERA were sub.-500 teams.
Interestingly, eight of the top 10 teams in bullpen ERA this season are above .500. And the top three have among the four best records in baseball. Conversely, struggling teams own nine of the 10 worst bullpens in baseball. The only exception is the Cincinnati Reds, who rebuilt their bullpen in midsummer. Yet, of the 10 teams in the bottom third of starters' ERA, five are playing over .500.
So, are we entering an era in which the strength of a bullpen outweighs that of a starting rotation? Or is it just one of those statistical anomalies, that the best teams just so happen to have good bullpens this year?
"I think some of it is coincidence, yeah," Orioles pitching coach Leo Mazzone said. "I know when I was in Atlanta it was the starting rotation every one of those years with the exception of when [John] Smoltz became the closer."
Sure, ideally a team needs a shutdown closer and two quality setup men, Mazzone said. But nothing, he said, trumps effective starting pitchers.
"The best way to build a bullpen is to build a good starting rotation, because then your starting rotation goes deep in the game," Mazzone said. "There's not a bullpen in major league baseball that can't be overexposed a little bit. Therefore, I think the starting rotation dictates how much use, how much rest and how much effectiveness [a bullpen has]. If anybody wants to argue that point, just check the track record."
But Minnesota Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson, who oversees baseball's best bullpen, has a different view.
