Latest conflict splits Arab world

Lebanon clash reveals rift between views of leaders and the public

July 17, 2006|By KIM MURPHY

DAMASCUS, Syria -- The rapidly escalating conflict in Lebanon has divided the Arab world, deepening the gulf between rulers and ruled and reinforcing in the public's mind the impotence of regimes that for two generations have been unable to produce a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, governments with ties to the United States have guardedly denounced Hezbollah for the attack on Israel that triggered the fighting - even as the people began tacking up posters of Hassan Nasrallah, the bearded, turbaned cleric who heads the Shiite militia group and has vowed to bring "war on every level" to Israel's door.

The disconnect between the broad range of public support for Hezbollah and the unease felt by many Arab leaders is one of many reasons that Arab governments have been largely unable to mount an effective diplomatic response to Israel's five-day-old bombing campaign.

Over the weekend, for example, the Arab League, meeting in Cairo, was able to agree on little more than a statement that urged all parties to avoid actions that may "undermine peace and security," appealed to the United Nations for intervention and unsurprisingly declared the Middle East peace process "dead."

On one level, the divide pits Syria and Iran, longtime backers of Hezbollah, against Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, whose Sunni-led governments fear the rise of Islamic militancy and the influence of Iran.

"The resistance will win, and the Israeli aggression will fail," said Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal in a statement yesterday, pledging a "firm and direct response" if Syria is hit. "The resistance has hit deep inside Israel, and the enemy did not expect this."

Iran, meanwhile, threatened that Israel would suffer "unimaginable losses" if it widened the conflict with an attack on Syria.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei rallied behind Hezbollah yesterday, describing Israel as "an evil, cancerous tumor" in the midst of the Islamic world.

By contrast, the Saudis on Friday blamed the current crisis on "irresponsible adventurism" by Hezbollah - a statement echoed by Jordan and Egypt.

At the same time, the divide separates those governments from large segments of their populations.

"What has the Egyptian government done to thwart the Israeli aggressions? The government is having normal relations with Israel, sitting back and saying how much they love Palestine, while Palestinians are being shot dead every day. And then comes this very small nationalist resistance movement which finally manages to do something that all the Arab governments with their huge armies haven't been able to do," said Iman Hamdi, a political scientist at the American University of Cairo. "It very much discredits these regimes in the eyes of the people."

The decision by President Bush not to support the Lebanese government's plea for a cease-fire, even though that government has been backed by the United States, has dealt a further blow to public feelings about the U.S. in the region.

The governing bloc in the Lebanese parliament, led by Saad Hariri, "are the most pro-American Arabs in the Middle East. They have promised, `America will protect us if we stand against Syria,'" said Joshua Landis, a Middle East expert and professor at the University of Oklahoma.

Now Israel is "blowing the hell out of them, and America isn't taking one step to protect them," Landis said.

"The whole Arab world is going to look and see that Hariri has been sacrificed on the altar of Israeli power. For the Arabs, this just rips the face of democracy right off."

Even the U.S.-backed Cabinet in Iraq has taken a critical position, with Prime Minister Noori Kamil al-Maliki calling on Arab leaders to "adopt a clear stance that denounces the criminal operations committed in Lebanon and Gaza."

The one action that Arab governments have been able to agree on so far is to pledge money to help Lebanon. Yesterday, the governments of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pledged $90 million.

The fact that Hezbollah is a Shiite militia has played a considerable role in the Arab split. Sunni Muslim leaders who historically have dominated the Arab world worry about the rise of Shiite power, particularly after the elections in Iraq, which saw that nation's Shiite majority win control of the government.

Widespread public support for Hezbollah opens a new door to Shiite Iran, Hezbollah's principal state backer, whose growing assertiveness already is a source of worry for Arab leaders. A little more than a year ago, Jordan's King Abdullah warned of a "Shiite arc" spreading from Iran through Iraq and Lebanon.

"Hezbollah is seen by many of the Arab regimes as an extension of Iranian power," said Mouin Rabbani, a Jordan-based analyst with the International Crisis Group.

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