Just over a year ago, after the ejection of Syrian forces from Lebanon, the militant Shiite group Hezbollah found itself at a crossroads. On one hand, it seemed to be casting its lot with Lebanese politics, as its candidates struck an alliance with Christians and joined the Lebanese Cabinet. Some even pointed to Hezbollah as a model for how a rogue militia can be co-opted and turned away from lawlessness.
On the other hand, Hezbollah clung to its arms. Some believed it was biding its time, allying its interests with its sponsors in Iran and Syria.
With its cross-border attack on Israel last week, Hezbollah apparently made its choice.
Israel's shelling of Gaza provided Hezbollah with an opportunity to show solidarity with its Islamic brethren in Gaza. But analysts pointed to other motives: Hezbollah needs to reassert its right to maintain its heavily armed militia against ever louder domestic calls for its disarmament, and its actions burnish its backers, Iran and Syria, as they face Western attempts to combat and isolate them.
There is precedent for cooperation between Hamas, the Palestinian group whose exiled leader lives in Syria, and Hezbollah. In 2004, the two groups concluded an agreement to work more closely to attack Israel more often. In an echo of this week's violence, soon after the second uprising began against Israel in the occupied territories in September 2000, Hezbollah staged a cross-border raid to seize soldiers that led to protracted hostage negotiations.
This week's fighting also signals that Hezbollah and its allies are girding for a longer-term confrontation. Hezbollah sees a joint U.S.-Israeli attempt to reshape the region in the Western image, through the invasion of Iraq and the emphasis on democracy, and it is determined to block it by asserting the supremacy of Islam. Here, Hezbollah's move serves the interest of its patrons, Iran and Syria. Their relationship is so opaque that even students of the movement hesitate to suggest that Syria or Iran can issue direct orders to Hezbollah. But the links are strong, with Iran providing substantial financial assistance and arms, while Syria provides logistical help, as well as political backing.
Since Israel's 1982 incursion into Lebanon first spawned Hezbollah, or the Party of God, the radical organization has set out to prove that adherence to Islam alone will enable the Arabs to prevail. Using zealots who re-introduced the medieval practice of suicide attacks to the region, Hezbollah's attack on U.S. soldiers in Beirut prompted the withdrawal of U.S. forces in the early 1980s and forced Israel to end its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000.
