You don't have to be clairvoyant to know that the University of Virginia will be the No. 1 seed in the coming NCAA men's lacrosse tournament.
The top-ranked Cavaliers (13-0) are the only undefeated team in Division I, and their RPI ranking is tops as well. With the exception of 14-1 Hofstra, favored to win this week's Colonial Athletic Association tournament and grab one of the tournament's six automatic qualifiers, every other possible team in the field has lost at least twice, and numerous likely participants have four losses.
By the time the NCAA men's lacrosse committee unveils the 16-team bracket Sunday night, its members will have crunched all of the numbers and combinations necessary to seed the top eight teams and produce 10 at-large bids. Those factors include, in order of priority, each team's record against top five, top 10, top 15 and top 20 opponents based on the opponents' Rating Percentage Index (a strength-of-schedule measure), strength of schedule based on opponents' RPI and each team's RPI based on its entire Division I schedule.
Navy (Patriot League), Cornell (Ivy League) and Denver (Great Western) are automatic qualifiers after winning their respective conferences. The CAA, the America East and the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference also will fill automatic qualifier slots this weekend.
Among the scenarios that bear watching is the possible inclusion of all seven teams from the state of Maryland. The most that have ever made the tournament is five, which happened in 1989 and 1994.
Right now, Maryland, Johns Hopkins and Navy are in.
Towson, the reigning CAA champ, plays visiting Delaware in tonight's conference tournament semifinal. The Tigers (8-5) most likely need to win tonight to have a chance at an at-large invitation. Assuming Hofstra advances as the tournament's top seed to Saturday's title game, Towson, which lost in overtime at Hofstra last month, would not be intimidated going to Long Island to get the automatic berth.
UMBC (8-4) went undefeated in the America East in the regular season, will host the league tournament this weekend and is playing its best lacrosse at an ideal time. A loss to Binghamton in Friday's semifinal could be damaging. Reaching Sunday's title game might be enough to get the Retrievers in via the at-large route. UMBC has not been to the tournament since 1999.
