Finally, after 16 weeks and 43 prep races - after dominating performances by the likes of Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron and shocking upsets by the likes of With a City and Like Now - the road to the Kentucky Derby has reached the gates of Churchill Downs.
With just two weeks remaining until the May 6 Kentucky Derby and with the top 20 graded-stakes earners qualifying, you're either in by now or you're out. Trainer Nick Zito, who saddled five Derby starters last year, and D. Wayne Lukas, who has saddled four Derby winners, are out. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who nominated 38 colts, is in with two starters while three-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert has three starters.
With 20 colts and geldings racing for the first time at 1 1/4 miles and surrounded by 130,000 people, anything can happen. But there are 10 horses who deserve serious consideration based on past performances and the company they have kept. The question is, does their running style help or hurt their chances?
Brother Derek: He may very well be the favorite off his four consecutive graded-stakes wins in California, including his easy victory April 8 in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. But this son of Benchmark, who runs on or close to the pace, is going to have company in the Derby. It's not going to be easy.
Lawyer Ron: The only other likely Derby favorite, he's won all seven of his starts across dirt tracks and heads to Kentucky with three consecutive starts at Oaklawn Park, including the Arkansas Derby. Although he has won several starts on or close to the pace, he's also won coming from behind. A huge advantage come the Derby.
Barbaro: Undefeated Florida Derby winner has won all five of his starts, three on the turf, one across the slop and one across a fast track. Has tactical speed, but is trying to become first colt in 50 years to win the race off a five-week layoff.
A.P. Warrior: Trainer John Shirreffs, who won last year's Derby with 50-1 long shot Giacomo, may have the sleeper in this son of A.P. Indy. Finished third to Brother Derek in Santa Anita Derby when forced to press the winner. In the Derby, he'll come from well back. If the pace is hot as expected, he'll have a big shot.
Bob and John: One of Baffert's three starters, he won the Wood Memorial in New York across the slop after finishing third to A.P. Warrior and stablemate Point Determined at Santa Anita. Very consistent son of Seeking the Gold usually likes to race close to the pace.
