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Momentum, appeal set Steelers as 4-point pick

Super Bowl Xl

ON GAMBLING

January 31, 2006|By BILL ORDINE

Las Vegas-- --Leading up to Sunday's Super Bowl in Motown, the Seattle Seahawks have been doing their own version of that old Aretha Franklin hit. You know the one: Respect.

Seahawks guard Steve Hutchinson and wide receiver Darrell Jackson are just two players voicing the common Seattle complaint about the team not being given its proper due. And that indignity only intensified after Seattle won the NFC championship by trouncing the Carolina Panthers.

The Seahawks hardly had a chance to leave fingerprints on the NFC trophy when oddsmakers made the AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers more than a field goal favorite in the Super Bowl.

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That's the AFC's No. 6 seed over the NFC's No. 1 seed, mind you.

So exactly how does that happen?

The man who runs the sports and race books for MGM Mirage - the giant casino company that includes the Mirage, the Bellagio, the MGM Grand and several other mega-resorts - explains that it's a combination of careful opinion by oddsmakers, reinforced by a handful of professional sports bettors, and finally determined by the gambling public.

"There's nothing more democratic than that [betting] line," said Robert Walker, director of race and sports books for MGM Mirage, which counts 13 sports books among its casinos. "If you think we're fools, come out and bet it."

As of yesterday, MGM Mirage sports books had the Steelers as a four-point favorite.

Walker said that the "respect" theme has hit home this time because he's a Washington state native.

"My family and my best friends have been calling me wondering why I'm dogging the Seahawks," Walker said. "Like I care [who wins]."

What Walker does care about is attracting equal amounts of wagering on both teams. That way, the house earns a predictable commission, typically 10 percent, on straight point-spread wagers, regardless of which team wins.

But the Super Bowl line is special in that it is set like no other game during the season.

Going into the conference championship games, Walker and his consultants try to come up with a reasonable point spread that they believe will attract equal money on both sides. Much goes into that decision, including which team has more appeal to the unschooled public. This year, that's the Steelers.

Early, Walker thought Pittsburgh should be a two-point favorite if the NFC team turned out to be Seattle. But after Pittsburgh clobbered the Denver Broncos, Walker set a much different point spread for an anticipated Steelers-Seahawks game while Seattle was playing Carolina.

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