Ehrlich partakes in the timeless art of repositioning for election season

Marylanders may be suffering a bit of political whiplash.

After three years of proud fiscal prudence, Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. now travels the state announcing million-dollar gifts for the enjoyment of voters in every city, town, village and farm.

Daring anyone to call him a big spender, Mr. Ehrlich avails himself of a splendid bit of campaign-year luck: a budget surplus to be expended to serve the people.

If political damage was done in cutting higher education budgets - and forcing tuition increases - the governor has $170 million for the colleges and universities. Will anyone remember the cuts made in spending at the colleges and universities?

If time was lost figuring out what position to take on what he calls the next-generation abortion issue - embryonic stem cell research - Mr. Ehrlich has millions for a new stem cell research facility in Baltimore. Last year, he was a bit vague on an issue that offends those who do not support the use of embryos for research. This year, he's spending money on it.

There will be money for school construction and for other worthy efforts as yet unrevealed. The governor's new budget won't be made public for a few days.

This is business as usual, right?

Doesn't every governor working toward re-election do the same? That's the fair and balanced question.

The answer: You bet.

It's just that Mr. Ehrlich's turn toward the spending side occurs with considerable speed and some drama. With legitimacy, he says he hefted the cutting tools because big spending Democratic predecessors had driven the state into a ditch.

So he has been focused like a laser beam on fiscal discipline, hoping to reach a point at which more of the state's real needs could be met.

But, still, you would think a more consistent political response to the current surplus might be to build a deeper rainy day fund or to restore some borrowing from other state program budgets.

Instead, the Ehrlich administration reportedly will unveil a new spending plan that, once again, exceeds the spending affordability guidelines. Heads may spin yet again because spending affordability is a part of Maryland's underappreciated fiscal conservatism. It is a control device dating to the era of Ellen R. Sauerbrey, a former Republican House of Delegates member who convinced the Democratic majority to accept it. Ms. Sauerbrey narrowly lost a bid for governor, so she was never forced to think about violating her own guideline.

"Guideline" now becomes, in the fullness of an election season, the operative word. An Ehrlich administration official said the governor has not abandoned the principle.

But annual increases in the cost of public education, coupled with rising caseloads and outlays for Medicaid, consume much of whatever increased spending would be allowed under spending affordability. Thus, if a governor wants to do more in an election year or in any other year, he has to propose spending above the limit.

And there's this to consider: Any cutting that may be needed to get under the spending limit has to be done by the legislature.

They can't add anything to the budget, but they can cut it - and stand up for the blame should someone's program be ended or damaged.

All of this adds to what many are predicting will be a testy 2006 legislative session. Members of the General Assembly will be watching even more carefully to see who casts which politically damaging vote - for stem cell research, for this or that budget cut, etc. It might not be pretty.

Democrats and Republicans are apt to be searching for issues that sharply define themselves and their opponents, which is why Mr. Ehrlich's careful slide toward the Democratic side of the scale attracts such interest.

Shortly after the 2002 election, Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller said the General Assembly would work with Mr. Ehrlich because he had run as a Democrat. This was classic Miller-esque needling, a suggestion that the new governor had engaged in some clever packaging.

Mr. Miller could be forgiven if he counted up the new spending and thought to himself, "There he goes again."

C. Fraser Smith is senior news analyst for WYPR-FM. His column appears on Sundays. His e-mail is [e-mail].