January 01, 2006|By LARRY WILLIAMS
Sometimes the news explodes, like a hurricane, earthquake or terrorist attack. Sometimes it creeps up glacially. These slower-moving stories that change our lives are almost always the hardest to see and understand.
Here is a look at a few issues likely to have major effects on our lives in 2006:
Iraq
Although a majority of Americans disapproves of President Bush's handling of Iraq, the nation is closely divided on whether the decision to use military force there was right or wrong, and a majority believes it is still possible that a stable Iraqi democracy can be established.
As the new Iraqi government takes form this year, that hope will be tested. If the insurgency devolves into a civil war among religious and political factions, or if deadly attacks on American troops continue without an effective response, it will be increasingly difficult to explain the strategic value of the continued presence of American forces.
If the violence subsides and the new government is accepted as legitimate by most Iraqis, then the Bush administration is likely to move aggressively to reduce the numbers and exposure of American forces in Iraq. Either way, given the continuing public disillusionment with the conflict and fast-approaching midterm congressional elections, a significant reduction in U.S. troop levels in Iraq is likely before the end of 2006.
Economic fears
Americans are increasingly worried about the soaring cost of energy - gasoline for driving and natural gas for heating. Many have been tapping the growing value of their homes in the face of slow growth in family income and are concerned about an apparent weakening of the housing market. Health care costs are up, and employers are pushing more of those costs onto their workers.
How will all of this affect the economy in the coming year? Consumers and businesses are likely to remain cautious in the absence of good news, politically or economically. That means fewer good jobs and more layoffs - particularly in traditional industries being challenged by foreign competition or changes in consumer habits.
Political blues
Democrats should take little comfort in last year's plunge in President Bush's approval ratings. Both the legislative and executive branches of the federal government are taking a beating in the public eye.
Congress continued its downward slide, with only 45 percent of the public holding at least a somewhat favorable view of the body by mid-October, according to polling by the Pew Research Center, including a mere 7 percent who declared a "very" favorable opinion. Overall the federal government scored no better: Its favorability rating fell from a high of 73 percent as recently as April 2003 to 46 percent in December.
Analysts attribute the decline to dissatisfaction with the government's disappointing response to the Hurricane Katrina catastrophe and continuing reports of congressional corruption. This public dissatisfaction is ringing alarm bells for members of Congress from both parties. Members of the House facing midterm elections in November are particularly concerned.
Democrats are energized by what they see as their success in facing down Republicans on issues like the Patriot Act, prewar intelligence and Social Security changes.
But, absent a major scandal, it will be difficult for Democrats to upset the solid Republican majority in the House, given the financial and political advantages of incumbents. Indeed, polls show that although the public has a serious distaste for politicians in general, voters generally have a kinder view of their own representatives.
Severe weather
Severe weather around the world made 2005 the most costly year on record, with unprecedented insurance claims on damaged property, the United Nations Environment Programme reported, and weather experts expect more of the same in 2006.
The UNEP said this year's record was partly due to the highest number of hurricanes and tropical storms since records began more than 150 years ago. Some scientists believe the upsurge in cases of severe weather may be linked to climate change brought about by emissions of greenhouse gases. The Atlantic hurricane season this year broke many records. Hurricane Wilma in October was the strongest storm ever recorded, and there were so many tropical storms that the U.S. National Hurricane Center exhausted its list of 21 alphabetically ordered names.
Not all scientists are convinced climate change is responsible for the upsurge, but many computer models predict that such events could occur more frequently in a warmer world.
Hurricanes weren't the only manifestation of severe weather trouble. Tornadoes, heavy rains and drought caused significant human and economic losses in the last year. Some demographers attribute a significant portion of the increasing weather threat to intense development in coastal areas, on flood plains and in other high-risk areas.
