This year's playoff field far from level

NFL postseason shapes up as disparate, predictable

January 05, 2005|By Ken Murray | Ken Murray,SUN STAFF

Parity, the favorite NFL bromide that inspires hope in every outpost, no matter how dreary, is dead.

Forget the tired cliche that on "any given Sunday ... "

Ignore the theory that once the playoffs start, every team is equal at 0-0.

This is the postseason to kill all that old-fashioned vanity.

This is the postseason that belongs to the league's three elite teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles, although not necessarily in that order.

The AFC championship game should send the Patriots to Pittsburgh, and only a miracle by the Indianapolis Colts' Peyton Manning can change that.

The NFC championship game will return to Philadelphia, and whichever visiting team arrives had better bring a decent defense. Of course, there are very few of those in the NFC.

After the elite teams, there are four teams that fall in the hopeful category - the Colts, San Diego Chargers, Atlanta Falcons and, perhaps, the Green Bay Packers.

Beyond that, it's smoke and mirrors in prime time. The New York Jets and Denver Broncos? Not this season. The Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings? Maybe not this decade.

Rarely has an NFL postseason started with such an obvious outcome. This is such a disparate group of playoff teams that the drop from top to bottom is preposterous.

In the AFC, the No. 1-seeded Steelers have won 14 consecutive games. The No. 5-seeded Jets lost three of their last four games and backed into their playoff spot.

In the NFC, the top-seeded Eagles were 13-1 until coach Andy Reid elected to sit out his stars in the last two games, both of which became insignificant losses. The sixth-seeded Vikings, meanwhile, lost four of their last five. Like the fifth-seeded Rams, they go into the playoffs at 8-8; no 8-8 team has ever won an NFL playoff game.

This is also the postseason when offense punched several teams' tickets, and dragged defense along for the ride. That is especially true in the NFC, where the bottom four seeds ranked in the bottom third of the league in scoring defense (fewest points allowed).

While the Colts led the league in turnover differential at plus-19, the Broncos, Packers and Rams all registered a negative differential at nine, 14 and a staggering 24, respectively.

On offense, seven of the league's top 10 scoring teams made the playoffs. The league's second-most prolific scoring team, the Kansas City Chiefs, did not - because of atrocious defense.

All this disparity, however, ends with the elite teams. They are substantially balanced.

The Steelers led the league in three critical defensive categories: total yards, rushing yards and points allowed. On offense, they rank second in rushing yards per game and sixth in third-down efficiency. That's more than enough to protect rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is unbeaten in 13 starts this season.

The Patriots are fourth in points scored and tied for second in points allowed.

The Eagles are eighth in points scored and tied with the Patriots in points allowed.

Everyone else, it seems, is firing blanks.

Which is not to suggest there isn't pressure on the elite. Indeed, no one feels more pressure than Reid, whose Eagles have lost the past three NFC title games, two of them at home.

"I just want to see who we are playing and take care of business with that one, and that is as far as I am going," Reid said in a news conference this week. "We will worry about the next one after that."

The wisdom of Reid's decision to sit his stars should become apparent when the Eagles play in the divisional round on Jan. 16 with nearly a full complement of players. The conspicuous absence will be Pro Bowl receiver Terrell Owens, out with torn ligaments in his right ankle.

Returning to the team's tattered defensive line will be end Derrick Burgess and tackle Hollis Thomas.

Pittsburgh didn't miss a beat when it rested Roethlisberger, running back Jerome Bettis and receiver Plaxico Burress on Sunday in Buffalo.

The Patriots mostly played through Week 17, and now will hope to get cornerback Ty Law and defensive tackle Richard Seymour back for their divisional game on Jan. 16.

A year ago, after their linebacking unit was ravaged by injury, the Patriots won their second Super Bowl in three years. This season, the secondary has been hit hardest.

Asked about a comparison to last season, coach Bill Belichick was typically noncommittal.

"I don't know if it really matters where it is right now," he said of the team's overall health. "I think it is going to matter where it is two weeks from now."

The rest of the playoff hopefuls understand the challenge of going against the NFL's elite in this January crucible. In Atlanta, Falcons coach Jim Mora slipped quickly into his postseason profile with reporters.

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